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Reproduction numbers are widely used for the estimation and prediction of epidemic spreading processes over networks. However, reproduction numbers do not enable estimation and prediction in individual communities within networks, and they…
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is applied in several countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We consider discrete-time SEIR epidemic model in a closed system which does not…
In this paper, we propose a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits of near-term trend projection.…
We study the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model on arbitrary networks. The well-established pair approximation treats neighboring pairs of nodes exactly while making a mean field approximation for the rest of the network. We…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
In this paper, we develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and measure…
We present an exact analytical solution to a one-dimensional model of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic type, with infection rates dependent on nearest-neighbor occupations. We use a quantum mechanical approach, transforming…
In this manuscript, we develop a mobility-based Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model to elucidate the dynamics of pandemic propagation. While traditional SIR models within the field of epidemiology aptly characterize transitions…
We study the absorbing phase transition for the model of epidemic spreading, Susceptible- Infected- Refractory (SIR), on one dimensional small world networks. This model has been found to be in the universality class of the dynamical…
We propose a novel SIR epidemic model which is driven by the transmission of infection packets in networks. Specifically, infected nodes generate and deliver infection packets causing the spread of the epidemic, while recovered nodes block…
This paper describes a mathematical model for the spread of a virus through an isolated population of a given size. The model uses three, color-coded components, called molecules (red for infected and still contagious; green for infected,…
The SIR model is the cornerstone model for mathematical epidemiology, explaining key epidemic features such as the second-order transition between disease-free and epidemic states, the initial exponential growth of outbreaks or the…
Some modified versions of susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model are defined on small-world networks. Latency, incubation and variable susceptibility are included, separately. Phase transitions in these models are studied.…
We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
We consider the SIR epidemiological model applied to the evolution of COVID-19 with two approaches. In the first place we fit a global SIR model, with time delay, and constant parameters throughout the outbreak, including the contagion…
The disease spreading on complex networks is studied in SIR model. Simulations on empirical complex networks reveal two specific regimes of disease spreading: local containment and epidemic outbreak. The variables measuring the extent of…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…
Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…