Related papers: 4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns
Much of statistics relies upon four key elements: a law of large numbers, a calculus to operationalize stochastic convergence, a central limit theorem, and a framework for constructing local approximations. These elements are…
Principal component analysis (PCA) is a useful tool when trying to construct factor models from historical asset returns. For the implied volatilities of U.S. equities there is a PCA-based model with a principal eigenportfolio whose return…
Economists are blessed with a wealth of data for analysis, but more often than not, values in some entries of the data matrix are missing. Various methods have been proposed to handle missing observations in a few variables. We exploit the…
Modelling accurately financial price variations is an essential step underlying portfolio allocation optimization, derivative pricing and hedging, fund management and trading. The observed complex price fluctuations guide and constraint our…
This paper derives the expressions of correlations between prices of two assets, returns of two assets, and price-return correlations of two assets that depend on statistical moments and correlations of the current values, past values, and…
We give a complete algorithm and source code for constructing what we refer to as heterotic risk models (for equities), which combine: i) granularity of an industry classification; ii) diagonality of the principal component factor…
This paper expands on stochastic volatility models by proposing a data-driven method to select the macroeconomic events most likely to impact volatility. The paper identifies and quantifies the effects of macroeconomic events across…
Latent factor model estimation typically relies on either using domain knowledge to manually pick several observed covariates as factor proxies, or purely conducting multivariate analysis such as principal component analysis. However, the…
We present an algorithm for the decomposition of periodic financial return data into orthogonal factors of expected return and "systemic", "productive", and "nonproductive" risk. Generally, when the number of funds does not exceed the…
We study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks by a model of returns using a semi-Markov approach. More precisely we assume that the intraday return are described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov process and the…
Customer shopping behavioral features are core to product search ranking models in eCommerce. In this paper, we investigate the effect of lookback time windows when aggregating these features at the (query, product) level over history. By…
We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of…
This paper deals with the dimension reduction for high-dimensional time series based on common factors. In particular we allow the dimension of time series $p$ to be as large as, or even larger than, the sample size $n$. The estimation for…
As a firm varies the price of a product, consumers exhibit reference effects, making purchase decisions based not only on the prevailing price but also the product's price history. We consider the problem of learning such behavioral…
Rating Prediction is a basic problem in Recommender System, and one of the most widely used method is Factorization Machines(FM). However, traditional matrix factorization methods fail to utilize the benefit of implicit feedback, which has…
Hourly consumption from multiple providers displays pronounced intra-day, intra-week, and annual seasonalities, as well as strong cross-sectional correlations. We introduce a novel approach for forecasting high-dimensional U.S. electricity…
In this paper, we propose a price staleness factor model that accounts for pervasive market friction across assets and incorporates relevant covariates. Using large-panel high-frequency data, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators of…
Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are a salient feature of economic and financial history. Cycles found in the data are stochastic, often highly persistent, and span substantial fractions of the sample size. We refer to such cycles as "long".…
We propose a model to forecast large realized covariance matrices of returns, applying it to the constituents of the S\&P 500 daily. To address the curse of dimensionality, we decompose the return covariance matrix using standard firm-level…
One stylized feature of financial volatility impacting the modeling process is long memory. This paper examines long memory for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for Daily REITs and compares the findings for a…