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We propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification via information bottleneck (IB-UQ) for scientific machine learning tasks, including deep neural network (DNN) regression and neural operator learning (DeepONet). Specifically, we…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-31 Ling Guo , Hao Wu , Wenwen Zhou , Yan Wang , Tao Zhou

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for foundation models is essential to identify and mitigate potential hallucinations in automatically generated text. However, heuristic UQ approaches lack formal guarantees for key metrics such as the false…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Qingni Wang , Xiaofeng Zhu , Tianlong Chen , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu

We present $\Delta$-UQ -- a novel, general-purpose uncertainty estimator using the concept of anchoring in predictive models. Anchoring works by first transforming the input into a tuple consisting of an anchor point drawn from a prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-06 Rushil Anirudh , Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan

Researchers have proposed several approaches for neural network (NN) based uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, most of the approaches are developed considering strong assumptions. Uncertainty quantification algorithms often perform…

Neural Network (NN) models provide potential to speed up the drug discovery process and reduce its failure rates. The success of NN models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) as drug discovery explores chemical space beyond the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Ya Ju Fan , Jonathan E. Allen , Kevin S. McLoughlin , Da Shi , Brian J. Bennion , Xiaohua Zhang , Felice C. Lightstone

In safety-critical robotics applications, guaranteed and practical uncertainty quantification (UQ) in perception is vital. Many existing works either offer no formal containment guarantee, rely on restrictive modeling assumptions, or focus…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Guangyang Zeng , Yulong Gao , Yuan Shen , Lingpeng Chen , Haoying Li , Guodong Shi , Junfeng Wu

Deep learning models for semantic segmentation are prone to poor performance in real-world applications due to the highly challenging nature of the task. Model uncertainty quantification (UQ) is one way to address this issue of lack of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-04 Rishabh Singh , Jose C. Principe

Mathematical models are essential tools to study how the cardiovascular system maintains homeostasis. The utility of such models is limited by the accuracy of their predictions, which can be determined by uncertainty quantification (UQ). A…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-07-20 Andrew D. Marquis , Andrea Arnold , Caron Dean , Brian E. Carlson , Mette S. Olufsen

Efficiently performing predictive studies of irradiated particle-laden turbulent flows has the potential of providing significant contributions towards better understanding and optimizing, for example, concentrated solar power systems. As…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-08-20 Hillary R. Fairbanks , Lluis Jofre , Gianluca Geraci , Gianluca Iaccarino , Alireza Doostan

Two of the most significant challenges in uncertainty quantification pertain to the high computational cost for simulating complex physical models and the high dimension of the random inputs. In applications of practical interest, both of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Jonas Nitzler , Jonas Biehler , Niklas Fehn , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis , Wolfgang A. Wall

We describe modern variants of Monte Carlo methods for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) of the Neutron Transport Equation, when it is approximated by the discrete ordinates method with diamond differencing. We focus on the mono-energetic 1D…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-10-18 Ivan G. Graham , Matthew J. Parkinson , Robert Scheichl

We demonstrate that the recently developed Optimal Uncertainty Quantification (OUQ) theory, combined with recent software enabling fast global solutions of constrained non-convex optimization problems, provides a methodology for rigorous…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-09-16 M. McKerns , F. J. Alexander , K. S. Hickmann , T. J. Sullivan , D. E. Vaughan

It is critical that machine learning (ML) model predictions be trustworthy for high-throughput catalyst discovery approaches. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods allow estimation of the trustworthiness of an ML model, but these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Cameron Gruich , Varun Madhavan , Yixin Wang , Bryan Goldsmith

Multifidelity forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems often involve multiple quantities of interest and heterogeneous models (e.g., different grids, equations, dimensions, physics, surrogate and reduced-order models). While…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-26 M. Croci , K. E. Willcox , S. J. Wright

Neural network (NN) potentials promise highly accurate molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within the computational complexity of classical MD force fields. However, when applied outside their training domain, NN potential predictions can…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-07-28 Stephan Thaler , Gregor Doehner , Julija Zavadlav

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning models is a critical step to reduce human verification effort by detecting predictions with low confidence. This paper proposes a method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of table structure…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Kehinde Ajayi , Leizhen Zhang , Yi He , Jian Wu

In this paper, we describe an open source Python toolkit named Uncertainty Quantification 360 (UQ360) for the uncertainty quantification of AI models. The goal of this toolkit is twofold: first, to provide a broad range of capabilities to…

Reward models are central to aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. Yet most approaches rely on pointwise reward estimates that overlook the epistemic uncertainty in reward models arising from limited human feedback.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Daniel Yang , Samuel Stante , Florian Redhardt , Lena Libon , Parnian Kassraie , Ido Hakimi , Barna Pásztor , Andreas Krause

In system analysis and design optimization, multiple computational models are typically available to represent a given physical system. These models can be broadly classified as high-fidelity models, which provide highly accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Ruda Zhang , Negin Alemazkoor

Computational molecular modeling and visualization has seen significant progress in recent years with sev- eral molecular modeling and visualization software systems in use today. Nevertheless the molecular biology community lacks…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2016-05-20 Muhibur Rasheed , Nathan Clement , Abhishek Bhowmick , Chandrajit Bajaj
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