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We propose a novel class of network models for temporal dyadic interaction data. Our goal is to capture a number of important features often observed in social interactions: sparsity, degree heterogeneity, community structure and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Xenia Miscouridou , François Caron , Yee Whye Teh

When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Jason J. Lambe , Feng Chen , Tom Stindl , Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan

Recently proposed encoder-decoder structures for modeling Hawkes processes use transformer-inspired architectures, which encode the history of events via embeddings and self-attention mechanisms. These models deliver better prediction and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Yamac Alican Isik , Connor Davis , Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Ricardo Henao

Neuro-inspired models and systems have great potential for applications in unconventional computing. Often, the mechanisms of biological neurons are modeled or mimicked in simulated or physical systems in an attempt to harness some of the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-10-18 Jørgen Jensen Farner , Håkon Weydahl , Ruben Jahren , Ola Huse Ramstad , Stefano Nichele , Kristine Heiney

We propose a novel modeling framework for time-evolving networks allowing for long-term dependence in network features that update in continuous time. Dynamic network growth is functionally parameterized via the conditional intensity of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Duncan A Clark , Conor J. Kresin , Charlotte M. Jones-Todd

We design a new nonparametric method that allows one to estimate the matrix of integrated kernels of a multivariate Hawkes process. This matrix not only encodes the mutual influences of each nodes of the process, but also disentangles the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-31 Massil Achab , Emmanuel Bacry , Stéphane Gaïffas , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Jean-Francois Muzy

This paper models the dynamics of a large set of interacting neurons within the framework of statistical field theory. We use a method initially developed in the context of statistical field theory [44] and later adapted to complex systems…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-25 Pierre Gosselin , Aïleen Lotz , Marc Wambst

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

This paper introduces the Hawkes skeleton and the Hawkes graph. These objects summarize the branching structure of a multivariate Hawkes point process in a compact, yet meaningful way. We demonstrate how graph-theoretic vocabulary…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-14 Paul Embrechts , Matthias Kirchner

We propose a Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Process for modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics. The proposed model extends continuous-time neural Hawkes processes by integrating spatial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Christopher Chukwuemeka , Hojun You , Mikyoung Jun

The diversity of neuron models used in contemporary theoretical neuroscience to investigate specific properties of covariances raises the question how these models relate to each other. In particular it is hard to distinguish between…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-17 Dmytro Grytskyy , Tom Tetzlaff , Markus Diesmann , Moritz Helias

In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-14 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Lexing Xie

This paper studies nonparametric estimation of parameters of multivariate Hawkes processes. We consider the Bayesian setting and derive posterior concentration rates. First rates are derived for L1-metrics for stochastic intensities of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Sophie Donnet , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Providing the neurobiological basis of information processing in higher animals, spiking neural networks must be able to learn a variety of complicated computations, including the generation of appropriate, possibly delayed reactions to…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2016-06-30 Dominik Thalmeier , Marvin Uhlmann , Hilbert J. Kappen , Raoul-Martin Memmesheimer

We prove the existence of a phase transition for a stochastic model of interacting neurons. The spiking activity of each neuron is represented by a point process having rate $1 $ whenever its membrane potential is larger than a threshold…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-15 P. A. Ferrari , A. Galves , I. Grigorescu , E. Löcherbach

Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-21 Noa Malem-Shinitski , Cesar Ojeda , Manfred Opper

Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Ahmer Raza , Hudson Smith

Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-29 Haoyun Wang , Liyan Xie , Alex Cuozzo , Simon Mak , Yao Xie

The advent of large scale neural computational platforms has highlighted the lack of algorithms for synthesis of neural structures to perform predefined cognitive tasks. The Neural Engineering Framework offers one such synthesis, but it is…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2013-04-29 J. Tapson , G. Cohen , S. Afshar , K. Stiefel , Y. Buskila , R. Wang , T. J. Hamilton , A. van Schaik

We consider a population of Hawkes processes modeling the activity of $N$ interacting neurons. The neurons are regularly positioned on the circle $[-\pi, \pi]$, and the connectivity between neurons is given by a cosine kernel. The firing…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-13 Zoé Agathe-Nerine