Related papers: Revisiting Francis Galton's Forecasting Competitio…
In this article, we propose a novel ensemble technique with a multi-scheme weighting based on a technique called coopetitive soft gating. This technique combines both, ensemble member competition and cooperation, in order to maximize the…
In 1962 Dyson used a physically based, macroscopic argument to deduce the first two terms of the large spacing asymptotic expansion of the gap probability for the bulk state of random matrix ensembles with symmetry parameter \beta. In the…
This Brief Communication discusses the benefits of citation analysis in research evaluation based on Galton's "Wisdom of Crowds" (1907). Citations are based on the assessment of many which is why they can be ascribed a certain amount of…
In the field of numerical weather prediction (NWP), the probabilistic distribution of the future state of the atmosphere is sampled with Monte-Carlo-like simulations, called ensembles. These ensembles have deficiencies (such as conditional…
In a memoir published in 1936 in the Annales de Institut Poincare, M. de Mises demonstrates that under certain conditions, the distribution (law of probability) of the so-called statistical functions tends towards the Gaussian, the…
This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…
The approach for testing equal predictive accuracy for pairs of forecasting models proposed by Giacomini and White (2006) assumes that the parameters of the underlying forecasting models are estimated using a rolling window of fixed width…
This survey covers state-of-the-art Bayesian techniques for the estimation of mixtures. It complements the earlier Marin, Mengersen and Robert (2005) by studying new types of distributions, the multinomial, latent class and t distributions.…
We propose a two-component mixture of a noninformative (diffuse) and an informative prior distribution, weighted through the data in such a way to prefer the first component if a prior-data conflict arises. The data-driven approach for…
This paper is a step-by-step tutorial for fitting a mixture distribution to data. It merely assumes the reader has the background of calculus and linear algebra. Other required background is briefly reviewed before explaining the main…
In this pedagogical text aimed at those wanting to start thinking about or brush up on probabilistic inference, I review the rules by which probability distribution functions can (and cannot) be combined. I connect these rules to the…
Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus past results often do not reflect the performances of the…
The weighted average is by far the most popular approach to combining multiple forecasts of some future outcome. This paper shows that both for probability or real-valued forecasts, a non-trivial weighted average of different forecasts is…
Analysis of competing risks data plays an important role in the lifetime data analysis. Recently Feizjavadian and Hashemi (Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, vol. 82, 19-34, 2015) provided a classical inference of a competing risks…
Context: Software engineering has a problem in that when we empirically evaluate competing prediction systems we obtain conflicting results. Objective: To reduce the inconsistency amongst validation study results and provide a more formal…
Probability metrics constitute an important tool in probability theory and statistics \cite{DKS91}, \cite{R91}, \cite{Z83} as they are specific metrics on spaces of random variables which, by satisfying an extra condition, concord well with…
Communicating forecast uncertainty effectively is a persistent challenge in predictive endeavours such as weather forecasting. This paper explores the application of possibility theory as a complementary approach to traditional probability…
Forecast combination involves using multiple forecasts to create a single, more accurate prediction. Recently, feature-based forecasting has been employed to either select the most appropriate forecasting models or to optimize the weights…
This note proposes a penalty criterion for assessing correct score forecasting in a soccer match. The penalty is based on hierarchical priorities for such a forecast i.e., i) Win, Draw and Loss exact prediction and ii) normalized Euclidian…
Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…