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We consider quantile estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo and establish conditions under which the sampling distribution of the Monte Carlo error is approximately Normal. Further, we investigate techniques to estimate the associated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-20 Charles Doss , James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones , Ronald C. Neath

Techniques for simulating molecules whose conformations satisfy constraints are presented. A method for selecting appropriate moves in Monte Carlo simulations is given. The resulting moves not only obey the constraints but also maintain…

Computational Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Charles F. F. Karney , Jason E. Ferrara

Calculating a Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE) is an important step in the statistical analysis of the simulation output obtained from a Markov chain Monte Carlo experiment. An MCSE is usually based on an estimate of the variance of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-25 James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

In this work a replica exchange Monte Carlo scheme which considers an extended isobaric-isothermal ensemble with respect to pressure is applied to study hard spheres (HS). The idea behind the proposal is expanding volume instead of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-20 Gerardo Odriozola

Monte-Carlo simulations are routinely used for estimating the scaling exponents of complex systems. However, due to finite-size effects, determining the exponent values is often difficult and not reliable. Here we present a novel technique…

Computational Physics · Physics 2013-03-05 Indrek Mandre , Jaan Kalda

When the target parameter for inference is a real-valued, continuous function of probabilities in the $k$-sample multinomial problem, variance estimation may be challenging. In small samples or when the function is nondifferentiable at the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-05-13 Michael C Sachs , Erin E Gabriel , Michael P Fay

We consider the problem of choosing design parameters to minimize the probability of an undesired rare event that is described through the average of $n$ iid random variables. Since the probability of interest for near optimal design…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-02-22 Amarjit Budhiraja , Shu Lu , Yang Yu , Quoc Tran-Dinh

This work introduces meta estimators that combine multiple multifidelity techniques based on control variates, importance sampling, and information reuse to yield a quasi-multiplicative amount of variance reduction. The proposed meta…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-01-19 Frederick Law , Antoine Cerfon , Benjamin Peherstorfer , Florian Wechsung

Due to the complexity of order statistics, the finite sample behaviour of robust statistics is generally not analytically solvable. While the Monte Carlo method can provide approximate solutions, its convergence rate is typically very slow,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-12 Li Tuobang

Monte Carlo experiments produce samples in order to estimate features of a given distribution. However, simultaneous estimation of means and quantiles has received little attention, despite being common practice. In this setting we…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-24 Nathan Robertson , James M. Flegal , Dootika Vats , Galin L. Jones

This is basically a review of the field of Quasi-Monte Carlo intended for computational physicists and other potential users of quasi-random numbers. As such, much of the material is not new, but is presented here in a style hopefully more…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2010-11-11 Fred James , Jiri Hoogland , Ronald Kleiss

We develop an algorithm for sampling from the unitary invariant random matrix ensembles. The algorithm is based on the representation of their eigenvalues as a determinantal point process whose kernel is given in terms of orthogonal…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2014-04-02 Sheehan Olver , Raj Rao Nadakuditi , Thomas Trogdon

Elastic systems that are spatially heterogeneous in their mechanical response pose special challenges for molecular simulations. Standard methods for sampling thermal fluctuations of a system's size and shape proceed through a series of…

Materials Science · Physics 2015-05-13 Sander Pronk , Phillip L. Geissler

We introduce the Mass Migration Process (MMP), a conservative particle system on ${\mathbb N}^{{\mathbb Z}^d}$. It consists in jumps of $k$ particles ($k\ge 1$) between sites, with a jump rate depending only on the state of the system at…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-08 Lucie Fajfrova , Thierry Gobron , Ellen Saada

Expectation values of physical quantities may accurately be obtained by the evaluation of integrals within Many-Body Quantum mechanics, and these multi-dimensional integrals may be estimated using Monte Carlo methods. In a previous…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-10-01 J. R. Trail

It is often necessary to make sampling-based statistical inference about many probability distributions in parallel. Given a finite computational resource, this article addresses how to optimally divide sampling effort between the samplers…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-18 Nicholas Heard , Melissa Turcotte

We present a novel approach to reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) modeling, SpecSwap-RMC, which makes use of pre-computed property data from a discrete configuration space replacing atomistic moves with swap moves of contributions to a sample-set…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-14 Mikael Leetmaa , Kjartan Thor Wikfeldt , Lars G. M. Pettersson

Rare event sampling algorithms are essential for understanding processes that occur infrequently on the molecular scale, yet they are important for the long-time dynamics of complex molecular systems. One of these algorithms, transition…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-06-19 Sebastian Falkner , Alessandro Coretti , Baron Peters , Peter G. Bolhuis , Christoph Dellago

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) approach usually works well when estimating the expected value of a quantity which is a Lipschitz function of intermediate quantities, but if it is a discontinuous function it can lead to a much slower…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Michael B Giles

We extend Monte Carlo samplers based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP samplers) by formally defining different boundary conditions such as sticky floors, soft and hard walls and teleportation portals. This allows PDMP…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-15 Joris Bierkens , Sebastiano Grazzi , Gareth Roberts , Moritz Schauer