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The paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of plans in the presence of unmeasured variables, each plan consisting of several concurrent or sequential actions. We establish a graphical criterion for recognizing when the effects of a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Judea Pearl , James M. Robins

Instrumental variables are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. The discrete instrumental variable model has testable implications on the law of the observed data. However, current assessments…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-22 Linbo Wang , James M. Robins , Thomas S. Richardson

Causal inference methods based on conditional independence construct Markov equivalent graphs, and cannot be applied to bivariate cases. The approaches based on independence of cause and mechanism state, on the contrary, that causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Nataliya Sokolovska , Pierre-Henri Wuillemin

Measurement system analysis aims to quantify the variability in data attributable to the measurement system and evaluate its contribution to overall data variability. This paper conducts a rigorous theoretical investigation of the…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-31 Banafsheh Lashkari , Shojaeddin Chenouri

This study introduces a data-driven, machine learning-based method to detect suitable control variables and instruments for assessing the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data. Our approach tests the joint…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Nicolas Apfel , Julia Hatamyar , Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

In this paper I derive a set of testable implications for econometric models defined by three assumptions: (i) the existence of strictly exogenous discrete instruments, (ii) restrictions on how the instruments affect adoption of a finite…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-22 Ricardo E. Miranda

The instrumental variables (IV) method is a method for making causal inferences about the effect of a treatment based on an observational study in which there are unmeasured confounding variables. The method requires a valid IV, a variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-19 Dylan Small , Zhiqiang Tan , Scott Lorch , Alan Brookhart

Pricing based on individual customer characteristics is widely used to maximize sellers' revenues. This work studies offline personalized pricing under endogeneity using an instrumental variable approach. Standard instrumental variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-27 Rui Miao , Zhengling Qi , Cong Shi , Lin Lin

Causal inference methods such as instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences are widely used to identify and estimate treatment effects. However, when outcomes are qualitative, their application poses…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-30 Riccardo Di Francesco , Giovanni Mellace

Causal inference methods are gaining increasing prominence in pharmaceutical drug development in light of the recently published addendum on estimands and sensitivity analysis in clinical trials to the E9 guideline of the International…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-30 Jack Bowden , Bjoern Bornkamp , Ekkehard Glimm , Frank Bretz

In this article, we review quantile models with endogeneity. We focus on models that achieve identification through the use of instrumental variables and discuss conditions under which partial and point identification are obtained. We…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-03 Victor Chernozhukov , Christian Hansen

Statistical analysis is an important tool to distinguish systematic from chance findings. Current statistical analyses rely on distributional assumptions reflecting the structure of some underlying model, which if not met lead to problems…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-15 Orestis Loukas , Ho Ryun Chung

Instrumental variables estimation has gained considerable traction in recent decades as a tool for causal inference, particularly amongst empirical researchers. This paper makes three contributions. First, we provide a detailed theoretical…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-04-27 Aiwei Huang , Madhurima Chandra , Laura Malkhasyan

Instrumental variable based estimation of a causal effect has emerged as a standard approach to mitigate confounding bias in the social sciences and epidemiology, where conducting randomized experiments can be too costly or impossible.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Danielle Tsao , Krikamol Muandet , Frederick Eberhardt , Emilija Perković

Statistical methods are indispensable to scientific inference. However, there exists a longstanding tension across a wide range of scientific disciplines about the role that ``context'' should play in the application of statistical methods…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-06 Ashley I Naimi

Instrumental variables are widely used in econometrics and epidemiology for identifying and estimating causal effects when an exposure of interest is confounded by unmeasured factors. Despite this popularity, the assumptions invoked to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-15 Alexander W. Levis , Edward H. Kennedy , Luke Keele

What is Statistics? Opinions vary. In fact, there is a continuous spectrum of attitudes toward statistics ranging from pure theoreticians, proving asymptotic efficiency and searching for most powerful tests, to wild practitioners, blindly…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-17 Konstantin Zuev

This paper examines empirical methods for estimating the response of aggregated electricity demand to high-frequency price signals, the short-term elasticity of electricity demand. We investigate how the endogeneity of prices and the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-23 Silvana Tiedemann , Raffaele Sgarlato , Lion Hirth

Instrumental variable (IV) analyses are becoming common in health services research and epidemiology. IV analyses can be used both to analyze randomized trials with noncompliance and as a form of natural experiment. In these analyses,…

Instrumental variable methods are among the most commonly used causal inference approaches to deal with unmeasured confounders in observational studies. The presence of invalid instruments is the primary concern for practical applications,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-18 Zijian Guo