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We propose to integrate weapon system features (such as weapon system manufacturer, deployment time and location, storage time and location, etc.) into a parameterized Cox-Weibull [1] reliability model via a neural network, like DeepSurv…

Sensor management in multi-object stochastic systems is a theoretically and computationally challenging problem. This paper presents a novel approach to the multi-target multi-sensor control problem within the partially observed Markov…

An irreversible Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm with skew detailed balance conditions originally proposed by Turitsyn et al. is extended to general discrete systems on the basis of the Metropolis-Hastings scheme. To evaluate the…

The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have…

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

The interpretation of cosmological observables requires the use of increasingly sophisticated theoretical models. Since these models are becoming computationally very expensive and display non-trivial uncertainties, the use of standard…

Statistical signal processing applications usually require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. These estimates are typically obtained either by solving a multi-variate optimization problem, as in the…

Many problems in the geophysical sciences demand the ability to calibrate the parameters and predict the time evolution of complex dynamical models using sequentially-collected data. Here we introduce a general methodology for the joint…

This article analyses a new class of advanced particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms recently introduced by Andrieu, Doucet, and Holenstein (2010). We present a natural interpretation of these methods in terms of well known…

We present a new Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm for CMB analysis in the low signal-to-noise regime. This method builds on and complements the previously described CMB Gibbs sampler, and effectively solves the low signal-to-noise…

Fitting stochastic kinetic models represented by Markov jump processes within the Bayesian paradigm is complicated by the intractability of the observed data likelihood. There has therefore been considerable attention given to the design of…

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…

In this work, we develop and compare two innovative strategies for parameter estimation and radar detection of multiple point-like targets. The first strategy, which appears here for the first time, jointly exploits the maximum likelihood…

This paper surveys various results about Markov chains on general (non-countable) state spaces. It begins with an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which provide the motivation and context for the theory which…

Random finite sets (RFSs) has been a fruitful area of research in recent years, yielding new approximate filters such as the probability hypothesis density (PHD), cardinalised PHD (CPHD), and multiple target multi-Bernoulli (MeMBer). These…

In this paper, we present a randomized version of the finite set statistics (FISST) Bayesian recursions for multi-object tracking problems. We propose a hypothesis level derivation of the FISST equations that shows that the multi-object…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are foundational algorithms for Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling. However, most MCMC algorithms are inherently sequential and their time complexity scales linearly with the sequence…

Reinforcement learning demonstrated immense success in modelling complex physics-driven systems, providing end-to-end trainable solutions by interacting with a simulated or real environment, maximizing a scalar reward signal. In this work,…

A novel approach of accurately reconstructing storage ring's linear optics from turn-by-turn (TbT) data containing measurement error is introduced. This approach adopts a Bayesian inference based on the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC)…

Switching state-space models (SSSM) are a very popular class of time series models that have found many applications in statistics, econometrics and advanced signal processing. Bayesian inference for these models typically relies on Markov…