Related papers: Variational Inference For Probabilistic Latent Ten…

Latent force models are a class of hybrid models for dynamic systems, combining simple mechanistic models with flexible Gaussian process (GP) perturbations. An extension of this framework to include multiplicative interactions between the…

We introduce FedGVI, a probabilistic Federated Learning (FL) framework that is robust to both prior and likelihood misspecification. FedGVI addresses limitations in both frequentist and Bayesian FL by providing unbiased predictions under…

The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies.…

The world is evolving and so is the vocabulary used to discuss topics in speech. Analysing political speech data from more than 30 years requires the use of flexible topic models to uncover the latent topics and their change in prevalence…

Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), combined with EM, is commonly used as an algorithm for likelihood maximization in undirected graphical models. In this paper, we present two iterative algorithms that generalize upon IPF. The first one…

We propose a novel method for approximate inference in Bayesian networks (BNs). The idea is to sample data from a BN, learn a latent tree model (LTM) from the data offline, and when online, make inference with the LTM instead of the…

To support real-world decision-making, it is crucial for models to be well-calibrated, i.e., to assign reliable confidence estimates to their predictions. Uncertainty quantification is particularly important in personalized federated…

Multi-aspect user preferences are attracting wider attention in recommender systems, as they enable more detailed understanding of users' evaluations of items. Previous studies show that incorporating multi-aspect preferences can greatly…

Latent factor model estimation typically relies on either using domain knowledge to manually pick several observed covariates as factor proxies, or purely conducting multivariate analysis such as principal component analysis. However, the…

Latent factor models (LFMs) such as matrix factorization achieve the state-of-the-art performance among various Collaborative Filtering (CF) approaches for recommendation. Despite the high recommendation accuracy of LFMs, a critical issue…

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

The latent position model (LPM) is a popular method used in network data analysis where nodes are assumed to be positioned in a $p$-dimensional latent space. The latent shrinkage position model (LSPM) is an extension of the LPM which…

We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…

Tensor factorization is a powerful tool to analyse multi-way data. Compared with traditional multi-linear methods, nonlinear tensor factorization models are capable of capturing more complex relationships in the data. However, they are…

We consider the probabilistic analogue to neural network matrix factorization (Dziugaite & Roy, 2015), which we construct with Bayesian neural networks and fit with variational inference. We find that a linear model fit with variational…

The identification of Linear Time-Varying (LTV) systems from input-output data is a fundamental yet challenging ill-posed inverse problem. This work introduces a unified Bayesian framework that models the system's impulse response, $h(t,…

In the simple vs composite hypothesis test with a proper prior, the Bayes Factor (BF) is shown to be the posterior mean of the Likelihood Ratio (LR). Therefore, the posterior standard deviation of the LR or rather its posterior cumulative…

This is a course project report with complete methodology, experiments, references and mathematical derivations. Matrix factorization [1] is a widely used technique in recommendation systems. Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) [2]…

Inference is an integral part of probabilistic topic models, but is often non-trivial to derive an efficient algorithm for a specific model. It is even much more challenging when we want to find a fast inference algorithm which always…

Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to…