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Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-25 Justin Finkel , Edwin P. Gerber , Dorian S. Abbot , Jonathan Weare

The identification of regions of similar climatological behavior can be utilized for the discovery of spatial relationships over long-range scales, including teleconnections. In this regard, the global picture of the interdependence…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-05-06 Zhen Su , Henning Meyerhenke , Jürgen Kurths

We propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system, relying on the nonlinear mutual information of time series analysis and betweenness centrality of complex network…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-02-11 Jonathan F. Donges , Yong Zou , Norbert Marwan , Juergen Kurths

Estimating spatial extremes from sparse observational networks produces uncertain return level maps, but dense output from physics-based simulation models is often available as a complementary data source. We develop a two-stage frequentist…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-04 Brian N. White , Brian Blanton , Rick Luettich , Richard L. Smith

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model that solves the steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations for buoyant compressible pollution dispersion under different meteorological conditions is developed. A 6.4 km by 6.4…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-11-15 Zhihao Li , Rebecca Tanzer-Gruener , Albert Presto , Peter Adams , Satbir Singh

The Met Office's weather and climate simulation code the Unified Model is used for both operational Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate modelling. The computational performance of the model running on parallel supercomputers is a key…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2018-11-12 Christopher M Maynard , David N Walters

Due to limited computational resources, medium-range temperature forecasts typically rely on low-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which are prone to systematic and random errors. We propose a method that integrates a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-09 Takuya Inoue , Takuya Kawabata

Post-processing typically takes the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and applies linear statistical techniques to produce improve localized forecasts, by including additional observations, or determining systematic…

We present a lightweight, easy-to-train, low-resolution, fully data-driven climate emulator, LUCIE, that can be trained on as low as $2$ years of $6$-hourly ERA5 data. Unlike most state-of-the-art AI weather models, LUCIE remains stable and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Haiwen Guan , Troy Arcomano , Ashesh Chattopadhyay , Romit Maulik

Recently it was demonstrated how climate data can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular it was shown that the quality of the global scale estimate compared well with regional high resolution studies and a link…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-10-31 Markus Gross , Vanesa Magar

This paper describes a flexible approach to short term prediction of meteorological variables. In particular, we focus on the prediction of the solar irradiance one hour ahead, a task that has high practical value when optimizing solar…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2019-11-06 Pierrick Bruneau , Philippe Pinheiro , Yoann Didry

Collecting time series data spatially distributed in many locations is often important for analyzing climate change and its impacts on ecosystems. However, comprehensive spatial data collection is not always feasible, requiring us to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Shihori Koyama , Daisuke Inoue , Hiroaki Yoshida , Kazuyuki Aihara , Gouhei Tanaka

Building design optimization often depends on physics-based simulation tools such as EnergyPlus, which, although accurate, are computationally expensive and slow. Surrogate models provide a faster alternative, yet most are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Piragash Manmatharasan , Girma Bitsuamlak , Katarina Grolinger

The thermal characterisation of a building envelope is usually best performed from on site measurements with controlled heating power set points. Occupant-friendly measurement conditions provide on the contrary less informative data.…

Data scarcity is a primary obstacle in developing robust Machine Learning (ML) models for detecting rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. Traditional data augmentation techniques (rotation, flipping, brightness adjustment) fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Marawan Yakout , Tannistha Maiti , Monira Majhabeen , Tarry Singh

Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical…

In past years, several studies have proposed new methods and applications for urban wind simulations. In this article, we present a fast and automatic methodology for reconstructing airflows within urban environments using LiDAR and…

Precipitation forecasts are less accurate compared to other meteorological fields because several key processes affecting precipitation distribution and intensity occur below the resolved scale of global weather prediction models. This…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-21 Rüdiger Brecht , Alex Bihlo

We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-03-26 Jonathan A. Weyn , Divya Kumar , Jeremy Berman , Najeeb Kazmi , Sylwester Klocek , Pete Luferenko , Kit Thambiratnam

Climate science studies the structure and dynamics of Earth's climate system and seeks to understand how climate changes over time, where the data is usually stored in the format of time series, recording the climate features, geolocation,…