Related papers: Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts us…

We seek a computationally efficient model for a collection of time series arising from multiple interacting entities (a.k.a. "agents"). Recent models of temporal patterns across individuals fail to incorporate explicit system-level…

Ensemble forecasting is, so far, the most successful approach to produce relevant forecasts with an estimation of their uncertainty. The main limitations of ensemble forecasting are the high computational cost and the difficulty to capture…

In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model HIT, which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of…

Forecasts of the trajectory of an infectious agent can help guide public health decision making. A traditional approach to forecasting fits a computational model to structured data and generates a predictive distribution. However, human…

Unintended pregnancy and abortion estimates are needed to inform and motivate investment in global health programmes and policies. Variability in the availability and reliability of data poses challenges for producing estimates. We…

This paper proposes a novel fast online methodology for outlier detection called the exception maximization outlier detection method(EMODM), which employs probabilistic models and statistical algorithms to detect abnormal patterns from the…

The forecasting of irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) is crucial in key areas such as healthcare, biomechanics, climate science, and astronomy. However, achieving accurate and practical predictions is challenging due to two main…

Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…

We show that pooling countries across a panel dimension to macroeconomic data can improve by a statistically significant margin the generalization ability of structural, reduced form, and machine learning (ML) methods to produce…

Ensemble forecasting of nonlinear systems involves the use of a model to run forward a discrete ensemble (or set) of initial states. Data assimilation techniques tend to focus on estimating the true state of the system, even though model…

Time series forecasting methods play critical role in estimating the spread of an epidemic. The coronavirus outbreak of December 2019 has already infected millions all over the world and continues to spread on. Just when the curve of the…

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing dramatically worldwide. Therefore, the availability of reliable forecasts for the number of cases in the coming days is of fundamental importance. We propose a simple statistical method for…

A linear mixed-effects (LME) model is proposed for modelling and forecasting single and multi-population age-specific death rates (ASDRs). The innovative approach that we take in this study treats age, the interaction between gender and…

The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…

This study explores the potential of large language models (LLMs) to enhance expert forecasting through ensemble learning. Leveraging the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) dataset, we propose a comprehensive…

Accurate forecasts of the number of newly infected people during an epidemic are critical for making effective timely decisions. This paper addresses this challenge using the SIMLR model, which incorporates machine learning (ML) into the…

Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most…

In general terms, intermittency is the property for which time evolving systems alternate among two or more different regimes. Predicting the instance when the regime switch will occur is extremely challenging, often practically impossible.…

Four sets of global average temperature anomalies, altered so that they refer to pre-industrial temperature levels (baseline), as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are analysed in this study. Expectation values…

At present Internet has emerged as a country's predominant and viable data communication infrastructure. The Autonomous System (AS) resources which are building blocks of the Internet are AS numbers, IPv4 and IPv6 Prefixes. AS number growth…