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A monotonic, non-kernel density variant of the density-matching technique for optimization under uncertainty is developed. The approach is suited for turbomachinery problems which, by and large, tend to exhibit monotonic variations in the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-05-25 Pranay Seshadri , Geoffrey Parks , Shahrokh Shahpar

Uncertainty is prevalent in robotics. Due to measurement noise and complex dynamics, we cannot estimate the exact system and environment state. Since conservative motion planners are not guaranteed to find a safe control strategy in a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-09-22 Laura Lützow , Yue Meng , Andres Chavez Armijos , Chuchu Fan

Robust optimization is a method for optimization under uncertainties in engineering systems and designs for applications ranging from aeronautics to nuclear. In a robust design process, parameter variability (or uncertainty) is incorporated…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-17 Richa Verma , Dinesh Kumar , Kazuma Kobayashi , Syed Alam

Topology optimization under uncertainty (TOuU) often defines objectives and constraints by statistical moments of geometric and physical quantities of interest. Most traditional TOuU methods use gradient-based optimization algorithms and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-05 Subhayan De , Jerrad Hampton , Kurt Maute , Alireza Doostan

Optimization models have been broadly used within side the energy industry as useful decision-making systems for scheduling and dispatching electric powered energy resources; this is applied in a system called unit commitment (UC). Unit…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-04-01 Angel Zambrano

Bayesian neural networks and deep ensemble methods have been proposed for uncertainty quantification; however, they are computationally intensive and require large storage. By utilizing a single deterministic model, we can solve the above…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Yaxin Ma , Benjamin Colburn , Jose C. Principe

This work presents a scalable computational framework for optimal design under uncertainty with application to multi-material insulation components of building envelopes. The forward model consists of a multi-phase thermo-mechanical model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-20 Jingye Tan , Danial Faghihi

Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) approaches aim to identify the best design of an engineering problem, whilst the probability of failure (PoF) remains below an acceptable value. Thus, the incorporation of the sharpest bounds on…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Niklas Miska , Daniel Balzani

We demonstrate that the recently developed Optimal Uncertainty Quantification (OUQ) theory, combined with recent software enabling fast global solutions of constrained non-convex optimization problems, provides a methodology for rigorous…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-09-16 M. McKerns , F. J. Alexander , K. S. Hickmann , T. J. Sullivan , D. E. Vaughan

In this article we study the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in an experiment with a technical system. We propose new density estimates which combine observed data of the technical system and simulated data from an (imperfect)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-21 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

Obtaining reliable and accurate quantification of uncertainty estimates from deep neural networks is important in safety-critical applications. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction and indicate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-16 Ranganath Krishnan , Omesh Tickoo

We consider the utilization of a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to inform the stochastic description of model input parameters. Our formulation is based on the recently developed consistent…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott N. Walsh , Tim M. Wildey , John D. Jakeman

Uncertainty estimation aims to evaluate the confidence of a trained deep neural network. However, existing uncertainty estimation approaches rely on low-dimensional distributional assumptions and thus suffer from the high dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Tsai Hor Chan , Kin Wai Lau , Jiajun Shen , Guosheng Yin , Lequan Yu

Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) provides a rational and sound framework for finding the optimal design while taking uncertainties into ac-count. The main issue in implementing RBDO methods, particularly stochastic simu-lation…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-03 Wang-Sheng Liu , Sai Hung Cheung

The fusion of multiple sensor modalities, especially through deep learning architectures, has been an active area of study. However, an under-explored aspect of such work is whether the methods can be robust to degradations across their…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-03-05 Junjiao Tian , Wesley Cheung , Nathan Glaser , Yen-Cheng Liu , Zsolt Kira

Bayesian optimization is a popular tool for data-efficient optimization of expensive objective functions. In real-life applications like engineering design, the designer often wants to take multiple objectives as well as input uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-28 J. Qing , I. Couckuyt , T. Dhaene

Reliable uncertainty estimation for 3D object detection is critical for deploying safe autonomous systems, yet modern detectors remain poorly calibrated, especially under distribution shifts. Although post-hoc calibration methods address…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Till Beemelmanns , Alexey Nekrasov , Stefan Vilceanu , Jonas Steinhaus , Timo Woopen , Bastian Leibe , Lutz Eckstein

Uncertainty quantification methods are required in autonomous systems that include deep learning (DL) components to assess the confidence of their estimations. However, to successfully deploy DL components in safety-critical autonomous…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Fabio Arnez , Huascar Espinoza , Ansgar Radermacher , François Terrier

We have recently proposed a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which UQ objectives and assumption/information set are brought into the forefront, providing a framework for the communication and comparison of UQ…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2012-02-07 M. McKerns , H. Owhadi , C. Scovel , T. J. Sullivan , M. Ortiz

Optimizing the design of complex systems requires navigating interdependent decisions, heterogeneous components, and multiple objectives. Our monotone theory of co-design offers a compositional framework for addressing this challenge,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-13 Yujun Huang , Marius Furter , Gioele Zardini
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