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These lecture notes introduce the statistical analysis of continuous-time generative models built from Markov dynamics. We begin with the stochastic-calculus foundations of score-based diffusion models, including time reversal, score…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-27 Eddie Aamari , Arthur Stéphanovitch

In continuum one-dimensional space, a coupled directed continuous time random walk model is proposed, where the random walker jumps toward one direction and the waiting time between jumps affects the subsequent jump. In the proposed model,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-03-20 Long Shi , Zuguo Yu , Zhi Mao , Aiguo Xiao

Advances in experimental techniques allow the collection of high-resolution spatio-temporal data that track individual motile entities over time. These tracking data motivate the use of mathematical models to characterise the motion…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-03-30 Arianna Ceccarelli , Alexander P. Browning , Ruth E. Baker

In this paper we present a novel method for estimating the parameters of a parametric diffusion processes. Our approach is based on a closed-form Maximum Likelihood estimator for an approximating Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 J. L. Kirkby , Dang Nguyen , Duy Nguyen , Nhu Nguyen

Mathematical models of motility are often based on random-walk descriptions of discrete individuals that can move according to certain rules. It is usually the case that large masses concentrated in small regions of space have a great…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-11-23 Carles Falcó

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Semen A. Trygubenko , David J. Wales

In electron transport, the tunnelling time is the time taken for an electron to tunnel out of a system after it has tunnelled in. We define the tunnelling time distribution for quantum processes in a dissipative environment and develop a…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2016-10-20 Samuel Rudge , Daniel Kosov

We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajec- tories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-21 Botond Cseke , David Schnoerr , Manfred Opper , Guido Sanguinetti

We introduce a discrete-time random walk model on a one-dimensional lattice with a nonconstant sojourn time and prove that the discrete density converges to a solution of a continuum diffusion equation. Our random walk model is not…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-02-14 Jaywan Chung , Yong-Jung Kim , Min-Gi Lee

We present a novel technique for the determination of the topological susceptibility (related to the variance of the distribution of global topological charge) from lattice gauge theory simulations, based on maximum-likelihood analysis of…

Fluctuations in stochastic systems are usually characterized by the full counting statistics, which analyzes the distribution of the number of events taking place in the fixed time interval. In an alternative approach, the distribution of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-01-24 Krzysztof Ptaszynski

Mathematically modelling diffusive and advective transport of particles in heterogeneous layered media is important to many applications in computational, biological and medical physics. While deterministic continuum models of such…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-09-16 Elliot J. Carr

The paper is concerned with the equilibrium distribution $\Pi_n$ of the $n$-th element in a sequence of continuous-time density dependent Markov processes on the integers. Under a $(2+\a)$-th moment condition on the jump distributions, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-02-06 Sanda N. Socoll , A. D. Barbour

Transition path theory (TPT) for diffusion processes is a framework for analysing the transitions of multiscale ergodic diffusion processes between disjoint metastable subsets of state space. Most methods for applying TPT involve the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Nada Cvetković , Tim Conrad , Han Cheng Lie

We study the exponential dissipation of entropic functionals for continuous time Markov chains and the associated convex Sobolev inequalities, including MLSI and Beckner inequalities. We propose a method that combines the Bakry \'Emery…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-28 Giovanni Conforti

In this paper we propose a new method for approximating the nonstationary moment dynamics of one dimensional Markovian birth-death processes. By expanding the transition probabilities of the Markov process in terms of Poisson-Charlier…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-09-23 Stefan Engblom , Jamol Pender

This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-07 Zeyu Zheng , Harsha Honnappa , Peter W. Glynn

Traditional thermodynamic trade-off relations usually apply to quantities that depend linearly on probability distributions. In contrast, many important information-theoretic measures, such as entropies, are nonlinear and therefore…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-02-17 Yoshihiko Hasegawa

We investigate the local times of a continuous-time Markov chain on an arbitrary discrete state space. For fixed finite range of the Markov chain, we derive an explicit formula for the joint density of all local times on the range, at any…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 D. Brydges , R. van der Hofstad , W. Konig

We consider Markov processes, which describe e.g. queueing network processes, in a random environment which influences the network by determining random breakdown of nodes, and the necessity of repair thereafter. Starting from an explicit…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-03 H. Daduna , R. Szekli
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