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This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-08 Samuel Bronstein , Stefan Engblom , Robin Marin

Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal model (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or nonlinearity.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-06 Kang Du , Yu Xiang

Causality analysis is a powerful tool for determining cause-and-effect relationships between variables in a system by quantifying the influence of one variable on another. Despite significant advancements in the field, many existing studies…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Justin Lien

This paper proposes a debiased estimator for causal effects in high-dimensional generalized linear models with binary outcomes and general link functions. The estimator augments a regularized regression plug-in with weights computed from a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-21 Jing Kong

Causal inference, as a major research area in statistics and data science, plays a central role across diverse fields such as medicine, economics, education, and the social sciences. Design-based causal inference begins with randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Xin Lu , Wanjia Fu , Hongzi Li , Haoyang Yu , Honghao Zhang , Ke Zhu , Hanzhong Liu

Expanding a lower-dimensional problem to a higher-dimensional space and then projecting back is often beneficial. This article rigorously investigates this perspective in the context of finite mixture models, namely how to improve inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-10 Andrea Mercatanti , Fan Li , Fabrizia Mealli

Causality defines the relationship between cause and effect. In multivariate time series field, this notion allows to characterize the links between several time series considering temporal lags. These phenomena are particularly important…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-01 Antonin Arsac , Aurore Lomet , Jean-Philippe Poli

Local causal discovery is of great practical significance, as there are often situations where the discovery of the global causal structure is unnecessary, and the interest lies solely on a single target variable. Most existing local…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Haoyue Dai , Ignavier Ng , Yujia Zheng , Zhengqing Gao , Kun Zhang

The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-31 Dustin Tran , Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Susan Athey , David M. Blei

This paper addresses the problem of measurement errors in causal inference and highlights several algebraic and graphical methods for eliminating systematic bias induced by such errors. In particulars, the paper discusses the control of…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-19 Judea Pearl

Causal inference is a fundamental research topic for discovering the cause-effect relationships in many disciplines. However, not all algorithms are equally well-suited for a given dataset. For instance, some approaches may only be able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Zhipeng Ma , Marco Kemmerling , Daniel Buschmann , Chrismarie Enslin , Daniel Lütticke , Robert H. Schmitt

Analysis of observational studies increasingly confronts the challenge of determining which of a possibly high-dimensional set of available covariates are required to satisfy the assumption of ignorable treatment assignment for estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-23 Chanmin Kim , Mauricio Tec , Corwin M Zigler

Gaussian mixtures are a common density representation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation. Selecting an appropriate number of Gaussian components, however, is difficult as one has to trade of computational complexity…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-04-02 Marco F. Huber

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Niloofar Moosavi , Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna

Causal investigations in observational studies pose a great challenge in research where randomized trials or intervention-based studies are not feasible. We develop an information geometric causal discovery and inference framework of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-08 Soumik Purkayastha , Peter X. K. Song

Uncovering causal relationships is a fundamental problem across science and engineering. However, most existing causal discovery methods assume acyclicity and direct access to the system variables -- assumptions that fail to hold in many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Muralikrishnna G. Sethuraman , Faramarz Fekri

One major drawback of state-of-the-art artificial intelligence is its lack of explainability. One approach to solve the problem is taking causality into account. Causal mechanisms can be described by structural causal models. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-07 Nico Reick , Felix Wiewel , Alexander Bartler , Bin Yang

Causal inference is fundamental across scientific disciplines, yet existing methods struggle to capture instantaneous, time-evolving causal relationships in complex, high-dimensional systems. In this paper, assimilative causal inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Marios Andreou , Nan Chen , Erik Bollt

Although nonstationary data are more common in the real world, most existing causal discovery methods do not take nonstationarity into consideration. In this letter, we propose a kernel embedding-based approach, ENCI, for nonstationary…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-25 Shoubo Hu , Zhitang Chen , Laiwan Chan

Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Minna Genbäck , Xavier de Luna
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