Related papers: Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes with …

It is proposed in the literature that in some complicated problems maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) are not suitable or even do not exist. An alternative to MLE for estimation of the parameters is the Bayesian method. The Markov chain…

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…

A constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) approach is developed for response-adaptive procedures in clinical trials with binary outcomes. The resulting CMDP class of Bayesian response -- adaptive procedures can be used to target a…

We study Markov Decision Processes (MDP) wherein states correspond to causal graphs that stochastically generate rewards. In this setup, the learner's goal is to identify atomic interventions that lead to high rewards by intervening on…

Computing the marginal likelihood or evidence is one of the core challenges in Bayesian analysis. While there are many established methods for estimating this quantity, they predominantly rely on using a large number of posterior samples…

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Bayesian inference provides a natural way of incorporating prior beliefs and assigning a probability measure to the space of hypotheses. Current solutions rely on iterative routines like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and…

Switched systems are capable of modeling processes with underlying dynamics that may change abruptly over time. To achieve accurate modeling in practice, one may need a large number of modes, but this may in turn increase the model…

In this paper, we study a continuous-time discounted jump Markov decision process with both controlled actions and observations. The observation is only available for a discrete set of time instances. At each time of observation, one has to…

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

Procedural material models have been gaining traction in many applications thanks to their flexibility, compactness, and easy editability. We explore the inverse rendering problem of procedural material parameter estimation from…

This paper proposes a flexible Bayesian approach to multiple imputation using conditional Gaussian mixtures. We introduce novel shrinkage priors for covariate-dependent mixing proportions in the mixture models to automatically select the…

A number of algorithms have been developed to solve probabilistic inference problems on belief networks. These algorithms can be divided into two main groups: exact techniques which exploit the conditional independence revealed when the…

To support and guide an extensive experimental research into systems biology of signaling pathways, increasingly more mechanistic models are being developed with hopes of gaining further insight into biological processes. In order to…

We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…

In this paper, we present a kernel-based, multi-task Gaussian Process (GP) model for approximating the underlying function of an individual's mobility state using a time-inhomogeneous Markov Process with two states: moves and pauses. Our…

Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

In this paper we present an extension of population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the trans-dimensional case. One of the main challenges in MCMC-based inference is that of simulating from high and trans-dimensional target…

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a popular class of models suitable for solving control decision problems in probabilistic reactive systems. We consider parametric MDPs (pMDPs) that include parameters in some of the transition…

In this paper, we solve the chance-constrained covariance steering problem for discrete-time Markov Jump Linear Systems (MJLS) using a convex optimization framework. We derive the analytical expressions for the mean and covariance…