Related papers: Exact Estimation for Markov Chain Equilibrium Expe…

Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods present a convenient approach for approximating the expected value of a random variable. Algorithms exist to adaptively sample the random variable until a user defined absolute error tolerance is…

We present a new unbiased algorithm that estimates the expected value of f(U) via Monte Carlo simulation, where U is a vector of d independent random variables, and f is a function of d variables. We assume that f does not depend equally on…

Estimation in the deformable template model is a big challenge in image analysis. The issue is to estimate an atlas of a population. This atlas contains a template and the corresponding geometrical variability of the observed shapes. The…

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a class of algorithms for drawing Markovian samples from high-dimensional target densities to approximate the numerical integration associated with computing statistical expectation, especially in Bayesian…

We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

Online variants of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm have recently been proposed to perform parameter inference with large data sets or data streams, in independent latent models and in hidden Markov models. Nevertheless, the…

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods can be viewed as implementations of Markov chains with infinite memory. We derive a general condition for the convergence of a Monte Carlo method whose history dependence is contained within the simulated…

Current reporting of results based on Markov chain Monte Carlo computations could be improved. In particular, a measure of the accuracy of the resulting estimates is rarely reported. Thus we have little ability to objectively assess the…

We prove explicit, i.e., non-asymptotic, error bounds for Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, such as the Metropolis algorithm. The problem is to compute the expectation (or integral) of f with respect to a measure which can be given by a…

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a target distribution via ergodic averages. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages…

We propose a novel framework of estimating systemic risk measures and risk allocations based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We consider a class of allocations whose jth component can be written as some risk measure of the jth…

Markov chain Monte Carlo is an inherently serial algorithm. Although likelihood calculations for individual steps can sometimes be parallelized, the serial evolution of the process is widely viewed as incompatible with parallelization,…

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

We prove explicit, i.e. non-asymptotic, error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The problem is to compute the expectation of a function f with respect to a measure {\pi}. Different convergence properties of Markov chains imply…

Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…

In many complex statistical models maximum likelihood estimators cannot be calculated. In the paper we solve this problem using Markov chain Monte Carlo approximation of the true likelihood. In the main result we prove asymptotic normality…

We propose a unified framework that extends the inference methods for classical hidden Markov models to continuous settings, where both the hidden states and observations occur in continuous time. Two different settings are analyzed: hidden…

We develop a novel Monte Carlo algorithm for the vector consisting of the supremum, the time at which the supremum is attained and the position at a given (constant) time of an exponentially tempered L\'evy process. The algorithm, based on…

Classification tasks are usually evaluated in terms of accuracy. However, accuracy is discontinuous and cannot be directly optimized using gradient ascent. Popular methods minimize cross-entropy, hinge loss, or other surrogate losses, which…