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A deterministic nonlinear ordinary differential equation model for mosquito dynamics in which the mosquitoes can quest for blood either within a human population or within non-human/vertebrate populations is derived and studied. The model…
The risk of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks is tightly linked to the frequency at which mosquitoes feed on blood, also known as the biting rate. However, standard models of mosquito-borne disease transmission inherently assume that…
We present a method to convert weather data into probabilistic forecasts of Aedes aegypti abundance. The approach, which relies on the Aedes-AI suite of neural networks, produces weekly point predictions with corresponding uncertainty…
Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…
A multi-patch and multi-group modeling framework describing the dynamics of a class of diseases driven by the interactions between vectors and hosts structured by groups is formulated. Hosts' dispersal is modeled in terms of patch-residence…
The assumption that vector mortality remains constant with age is used widely to assess malaria transmission risk and predict the public health consequences of vector control strategies. However, laboratory studies commonly demonstrate…
We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized…
The problems of selecting partial correlation and causality graphs for count data are considered. A parameter driven generalized linear model is used to describe the observed multivariate time series of counts. Partial correlation and…
An epidemic multi-strain model with temporary cross-immunity shows chaos, even in a previously unexpected parameter region. Especially dengue fever models with strong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection have previously shown…
Background: Guillain-Barr\'e Syndrome (GBS) is a common type of severe acute paralytic neuropathy and associated with other virus infections such as dengue fever and Zika. This study investigate the relationship between GBS, dengue, local…
The impact of climate conditions on influenza epidemiology has mostly been studied by addressing a singular aspect of transmission and a climate variable correlating to it. As climate change unfolds at an unprecedented rate, we urgently…
During infectious disease outbreaks, estimates of time-varying pathogen transmissibility, such as the instantaneous reproduction number R(t) or epidemic growth rate r(t), are used to inform decision-making by public health authorities. For…
This article is aimed at proposing a generalization of the Ross-Macdonald model for the transmission of Vector-borne diseases in which human-to-human contagions are also considered. We first present this generalized model by formulating a…
Partial differential equation (PDE) models for infectious disease have received renewed interest in recent years. Most models of this type extend classical compartmental formulations with additional terms accounting for spatial dynamics,…
Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) is widely regarded as a promising, environmentally friendly and chemical-free strategy for the prevention and control of dengue and other vector-borne diseases. In this paper, we develop and analyze a…
Clinicians make routine diagnosis by scrutinizing patients' medical signs and symptoms, a skill popularly referred to as "Clinical Eye". This skill evolves through trial-and-error and improves with time. The success of the therapeutic…
Malaria control strategies aiming at reducing disease transmission intensity may impact both oocyst intensity and infection prevalence in the mosquito vector. Thus far, mathematical models failed to identify a clear relationship between…
Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections, one of the most prevalent neglected tropical diseases, pose a significant threat to public health in tropical and subtropical areas. These parasites infect humans and animals through direct…
The first outbreak of dengue occurred in Madeira Island on 2012, featuring one virus serotype. Aedes aegypti was the vector of the disease and it is unlikely that it will be eliminated from the island. Therefore, a new outbreak of dengue…
This paper describes a technique for analyzing the stochastic structure of the vectorial capacity using moment--generating functions. In such formulation, for an infectious disease transmitted by a vector, we obtain the generating function…