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Random-effects models are frequently used to synthesise information from different studies in meta-analysis. While likelihood-based inference is attractive both in terms of limiting properties and of implementation, its application in…

Effectively supporting students in mastering all facets of self-regulated learning is a central aim of teachers and educational researchers. Prior research could demonstrate that formative feedback is an effective way to support students…

Fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) is now a common approach for text classification in a wide range of applications. When labeled documents are scarce, active learning helps save annotation efforts but requires retraining of massive…

Neural networks trained with ERM (empirical risk minimization) sometimes learn unintended decision rules, in particular when their training data is biased, i.e., when training labels are strongly correlated with undesirable features. To…

LLM ensembles are widely used for LLM judges. However, how to estimate their accuracy, especially in an efficient way, is unknown. In this paper, we present a principled maximum a posteriori (MAP) framework for an economical and precise…

A constrained multivariate linear model is a multivariate linear model with the columns of its coefficient matrix constrained to lie in a known subspace. This class of models includes those typically used to study growth curves and…

In many applications, one works with neural network models trained by someone else. For such pretrained models, one may not have access to training data or test data. Moreover, one may not know details about the model, e.g., the specifics…

Accurately quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for their reliable deployment, especially in high-stakes applications. Current state-of-the-art methods for measuring semantic uncertainty in LLMs rely on strict…

Mixed Models for Repeated Measures (MMRMs) are ubiquitous when analyzing outcomes of clinical trials. However, the linearity of the fixed-effect structure in these models largely restrict their use to estimating treatment effects that are…

The scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) currently faces significant challenges. Model assembly is widely considered a promising solution to break through these performance bottlenecks. However, current ensembling methods are primarily…

Multivariate linear mixed models (mvLMMs) have been widely used in many areas of genetics, and have attracted considerable recent interest in genome-wide association studies (GWASs). However, fitting mvLMMs is computationally non-trivial,…

We consider the problem of reconstructing a signal from multi-layered (possibly) non-linear measurements. Using non-rigorous but standard methods from statistical physics we present the Multi-Layer Approximate Message Passing (ML-AMP)…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to predict human behavior. We propose a measure for evaluating how much knowledge a pretrained LLM brings to such a prediction: its equivalent sample size, defined as the amount of…

Large language models (LLMs) effectively generate fluent text when the target output follows natural language patterns. However, structured prediction tasks confine the output format to a limited ontology, causing even very large models to…

A recent article on generalised linear mixed model asymptotics, Jiang et al. (2022), derived the rates of convergence for the asymptotic variances of maximum likelihood estimators. If $m$ denotes the number of groups and $n$ is the average…

Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to be unreliable in the factuality of their answers. To address this problem, NLP researchers have proposed a range of techniques to estimate LLM's confidence over facts. However, due to the lack of a…

Large language models (LLMs) distinguish themselves from previous technologies by functioning as collaborative ``thought partners,'' capable of engaging more fluidly in natural language on a range of tasks. As LLMs increasingly influence…

Machine learning models have exhibited exceptional results in various domains. The most prevalent approach for learning is the empirical risk minimizer (ERM), which adapts the model's weights to reduce the loss on a training set and…

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for tackling complex regression and classification tasks, yet its success often hinges on the quality of training data. This study introduces an ML paradigm inspired by domain knowledge…

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has outpaced the development of effective evaluation methods. Traditional benchmarks rely on task-specific metrics and static datasets, which often suffer from fairness issues, limited…