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Predicting Arctic sea ice extent is a notoriously difficult forecasting problem, even for lead times as short as one month. Motivated by Arctic intraannual variability phenomena such as reemergence of sea surface temperature and sea ice…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-10-17 Darin Comeau , Dimitrios Giannakis , Zhizhen Zhao , Andrew J. Majda

Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-05-21 Shaina Rogstad , Alan Condron , Robert DeConto , David Pollard

Sea ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic is an important indicator of changes in the climate, with important environmental, economic and security consequences. The complexity of the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea ice makes it difficult to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-11-06 James Hogg , Maria Fonoberova , Igor Mezic

The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-11-26 Giuseppe Zappa , Theodore G. Shepherd , Paulo Ceppi

We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, $g(h)$, under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker-Planck equation for $g(h)$ (Toppaladoddi \& Wettlaufer \emph{Phys. Rev.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-12-26 Srikanth Toppaladoddi , John S. Wettlaufer

The ice shelves buttressing the Antarctic ice sheet determine the rate of ice-discharge into the surrounding oceans. The geometry of ice shelves, and hence their buttressing strength, is determined by ice flow as well as by the local…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-14 Guy Moss , Vjeran Višnjević , Olaf Eisen , Falk M. Oraschewski , Cornelius Schröder , Jakob H. Macke , Reinhard Drews

In recent years extensive studies on the Earth's climate system have been carried out by means of advanced complex network statistics. The great majority of these studies, however, have been focusing on investigating correlation structures…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-10-20 Marc Wiedermann , Jonathan F. Donges , Dörthe Handorf , Jürgen Kurths , Reik V. Donner

Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-13 Nicole Ma , Jonathan H. Jiang , Kennard Hou , Yun Lin , Trung Vu , Philip E. Rosen , Yu Gu , Kristen A. Fahy

As climate change continues to reshape marginal ice zones in the Arctic, accurate and reliable sea ice data are critical for ensuring maritime safety. This study compares regional ice charts from the Alaska Sea Ice Program with satellite…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-15 Grant Peel , Ersegun Deniz Gedikli

North Pacific subsurface temperature data from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation model at 10m, 50m, 75m, 100m and 150m depths, are analyzed using a combination of state-space decomposition and subspace identification techniques to examine…

Applications · Statistics 2012-04-12 Cindy Bessey , Roy Mendelssohn

In this article, we considered the problem of sea ice cover is melting. Considering the `satellite passive microwave remote sensing data' as functional data, we studied daily observation of sea ice cover of each year as a smooth continuous…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-25 Purba Das , Ananya Lahiri , Sourish Das

A possible deepening of the ocean mixed layer was investigated at a selected point of the Patagonian continental shelf where a significant positive wind speed trend was estimated. Using a 1-dimensional vertical numerical model (S2P3) forced…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-05-08 Juan Zanella , Ezequiel Alvarez , Andres Pescio , Walter Dragani

Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-08-09 Beril Sirmacek

Rapid climate change has wide-ranging implications for the Arctic region, including sea ice loss, increased geopolitical attention, and expanding economic activity, including a dramatic increase in shipping activity. As a result, the risk…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-29 Mandana Saebi , Jian Xu , Salvatore R. Curasi , Erin K. Grey , Nitesh V. Chawla , David M. Lodge

The Argo project deploys thousands of floats throughout the world's oceans. Carried only by the current, these floats take measurements such as temperature and salinity at depths of up to two kilometers. These measurements are critical for…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-04 Derek Hansen , Drew Yarger

Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-21 Camille Hankel , Eli Tziperman

The persistent lack of spatially complete Antarctic sea ice thickness (SIT) data at sub-monthly resolution has fundamentally constrained the quantitative understanding of large-scale sea ice mass balance processes. In this study, a…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-05-13 Ziqi Ma , Qinghua Yang , Yue Xu , Wen Shi , Xiaoran Dong , Qian Shi , Hao Luo , Jiping Liu , Petteri Uotila , Yafei Nie

The Earth has warmed in the last century with the most rapid warming occurring near the surface in the arctic. This enhanced surface warming in the Arctic is partly because the extra heat is trapped in a thin layer of air near the surface…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-10-01 Richard Davy , Igor Ezau

The winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) modulates East Asian climate and the East/Japan Sea (EJS), yet local, scale-dependent air-sea couplings linking atmosphere, ocean and sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) remain unclear. Using 30 years…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-15 Gyuchang Lim , JongJin Park

Various studies identified possible drivers of extremes of Arctic sea ice reduction, such as observed in the summers of 2007 and 2012, including preconditioning, local feedback mechanisms, oceanic heat transport and the synoptic- and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-09 Jerome Sauer , Jonathan Demaeyer , Giuseppe Zappa , François Massonnet , Francesco Ragone