Related papers: Short-term Forecasting of Anomalous Load Using Rul…

Short term load forecasting has an essential medium for the reliable, economical and efficient operation of the power system. Most of the existing forecasting approaches utilize fixed statistical models with large historical data for…

Extreme weather can substantially change electricity consumption behavior, causing load curves to exhibit sharp spikes and pronounced volatility. If forecasts are inaccurate during those periods, power systems are more likely to face supply…

The renewable energies prediction and particularly global radiation forecasting is a challenge studied by a growing number of research teams. This paper proposes an original technique to model the insolation time series based on combining…

Anomaly detection of multivariate time series is meaningful for system behavior monitoring. This paper proposes an anomaly detection method based on unsupervised Short- and Long-term Mask Representation learning (SLMR). The main idea is to…

Demand forecasting is a crucial component of demand management. While shortening the forecasting horizon allows for more recent data and less uncertainty, this frequently means lower data aggregation levels and a more significant data…

Accurate electrical load forecasting is crucial for optimizing power system operations, planning, and management. As power systems become increasingly complex, traditional forecasting methods may fail to capture the intricate patterns and…

Short-term load forecasting for AI data centers presents new challenges because it is computing-driven, with heterogeneous job arrivals, sizes, and durations exhibiting bursty, non-stationary dynamics. Compared with traditional load types,…

Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…

Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or statistical techniques that fit past observations. GCMs require substantial computational resources, which…

Simple exponential smoothing is widely used in forecasting economic time series. This is because it is quick to compute and it generally delivers accurate forecasts. On the other hand, its multivariate version has received little attention…

Short-term load forecasting is of paramount importance in the efficient operation and planning of power systems, given its inherent non-linear and dynamic nature. Recent strides in deep learning have shown promise in addressing this…

Dynamical systems with high intrinsic dimensionality are often characterized by extreme events having the form of rare transitions several standard deviations away from the mean. For such systems, order-reduction methods through projection…

Many businesses and industries require accurate forecasts for weekly time series nowadays. However, the forecasting literature does not currently provide easy-to-use, automatic, reproducible and accurate approaches dedicated to this task.…

We present in this paper a model for forecasting short-term power loads based on deep residual networks. The proposed model is able to integrate domain knowledge and researchers' understanding of the task by virtue of different neural…

Predicting future probable values of model parameters, is an essential pre-requisite for assessing model decision reliability in an uncertain environment. Scenario Analysis is a methodology for modelling uncertainty in water resources…

We present a real-time multivariate anomaly detection algorithm for data streams based on the Probabilistic Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (PEWMA). Our formulation is resilient to (abrupt transient, abrupt distributional, and gradual…

Accurate estimation of order fulfillment time is critical for e-commerce logistics, yet traditional rule-based approaches often fail to capture the inherent uncertainties in delivery operations. This paper introduces a novel framework for…

Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…

This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addressing both uncertainty sources, the method achieves…

Extreme weather variations and the increasing unpredictability of load behavior make it difficult to determine power grid dispatches that are robust to uncertainties. While machine learning (ML) methods have improved the ability to model…