Related papers: Default contagion risks in Russian interbank marke…
We propose a novel credit default model that takes into account the impact of macroeconomic information and contagion effect on the defaults of obligors. We use a set-valued Markov chain to model the default process, which is the set of all…
We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the…
Credit and liquidity risks represent main channels of financial contagion for interbank lending markets. On one hand, banks face potential losses whenever their counterparties are under distress and thus unable to fulfill their obligations.…
The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly…
We propose a dynamic model of dependence structure between financial institutions within a financial system and we construct measures for dependence and financial instability. Employing Markov structures of joint credit migrations, our…
In this paper we introduce a generalized extension of the Eisenberg-Noe model of financial contagion to allow for time dynamics of the interbank liabilities, including a dynamic examination of default risk. This framework separates the cash…
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…
We consider a general tractable model for default contagion and systemic risk in a heterogeneous financial network, subject to an exogenous macroeconomic shock. We show that, under some regularity assumptions, the default cascade model…
This paper develops a continuous functional framework for analyzing contagion dynamics in financial networks, extending the Navier-Stokes-based approach to network-structured spatial processes. We model financial distress propagation as a…
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…
This chapter reviews key contributions of complexity science to the study of systemic risk in financial systems. The focus is on network models of financial contagion, where I explore various mechanisms of shock propagation, such as…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between…
A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing…
Propagation of balance-sheet or cash-flow insolvency across financial institutions may be modeled as a cascade process on a network representing their mutual exposures. We derive rigorous asymptotic results for the magnitude of contagion in…
Financial contagion from liquidity shocks has being recently ascribed as a prominent driver of systemic risk in interbank lending markets. Building on standard compartment models used in epidemics, in this work we develop an EDB…
We study systemic default contagion in sparse financial networks and develop a framework for deciding when aggregate exposure matrices are reliable and when node-level network information changes tail risk and control design. The first…
In spite of the growing theoretical literature on cascades of failures in interbank lending networks, empirical results seem to suggest that networks of direct exposures are not the major channel of financial contagion. In this paper we…
We consider a structural default model in an interconnected banking network as in Lipton [International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 19(6), 2016], with mutual obligations between each pair of banks. We analyse the model…
In this work we provide a simple setting that connects the structural modelling approach of Gai-Kapadia interbank networks with the mean-field approach to default contagion. To accomplish this we make two key contributions. First, we…
We consider a dynamic model of interconnected banks. New banks can emerge, and existing banks can default, creating a birth-and-death setup. Microscopically, banks evolve as independent geometric Brownian motions. Systemic effects are…