Related papers: Asymptotics for change-point models under varying …
The problem of parameter estimation by i.i.d. observations of an inhomogeneous Poisson process is considered in situation of misspecification. The model is that of a Poissonian signal observed in presence of a homogeneous Poissonian noise.…
We propose a framework for estimation and inference when the model may be misspecified. We rely on a local asymptotic approach where the degree of misspecification is indexed by the sample size. We construct estimators whose mean squared…
For a partial structural change in a linear regression model with a single break, we develop a continuous record asymptotic framework to build inference methods for the break date. We have T observations with a sampling frequency h over a…
We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the locations of change points in a high-dimensional mean shift model. To that end, we develop a locally refitted least squares estimator and obtain component-wise and…
We study the asymptotic theory of misspecified models for diffusion processes with noisy nonsynchronous observations. Unlike with correctly specified models, the original maximum-likelihood-type estimator has an asymptotic bias under the…
We study maximum-likelihood-type estimation for diffusion processes when the coefficients are nonrandom and observation occurs in nonsynchronous manner. The problem of nonsynchronous observations is important when we consider the analysis…
Tuning parameters are parameters involved in an estimating procedure for the purpose of reducing the risk of some other estimator. Examples include the degree of penalization in penalized regression and likelihood problems, as well as the…
A model of Poissonian observation having a jump (change-point) in the intensity function is considered. Two cases are studied. The first one corresponds to the situation when the jump size converges to a non-zero limit, while in the second…
This work develops change-point methods for statistics of high-frequency data. The main interest is in the volatility of an It\^{o} semi-martingale, the latter being discretely observed over a fixed time horizon. We construct a…
Most studies in real time change-point detection either focus on the linear model or use the CUSUM method under classical assumptions on model errors. This paper considers the sequential change-point detection in a nonlinear quantile model.…
We address the problem of detection and estimation of one or two change-points in the mean of a series of random variables. We use the formalism of set estimation in regression: To each point of a design is attached a binary label that…
Change-point detection and estimation procedures have been widely developed in the literature. However, commonly used approaches in change-point analysis have mainly been focusing on detecting change-points within an entire time series…
This paper considers M-estimation of a nonlinear regression model with multiple change-points occuring at unknown times. The multi-phase random design regression model, discontinuous in each change-point, have an arbitrary error $\epsilon$.…
We develop a mixture procedure for multi-sensor systems to monitor data streams for a change-point that causes a gradual degradation to a subset of the streams. Observations are assumed to be initially normal random variables with known…
M-estimation, aka empirical risk minimization, is at the heart of statistics and machine learning: Classification, regression, location estimation, etc. Asymptotic theory is well understood when the loss satisfies some smoothness…
There is a wide literature on change point tests, but the case of variables with infinite variances is essentially unexplored. In this paper we address this problem by studying the asymptotic behavior of trimmed CUSUM statistics. We show…
We provide a comprehensive set of new results on the impact of mis-specifying the short run dynamics in fractionally integrated processes. We show that four alternative parametric estimators - frequency domain maximum likelihood, Whittle,…
Decisions based partly or solely on predictions from probabilistic models may be sensitive to model misspecification. Statisticians are taught from an early stage that "all models are wrong", but little formal guidance exists on how to…
Change-point detection and locally stationary time series modeling are two major approaches for the analysis of non-stationary data. The former aims to identify stationary phases by detecting abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series…
This paper investigates a change-point estimation problem in the context of high-dimensional Markov Random Field models. Change-points represent a key feature in many dynamically evolving network structures. The change-point estimate is…