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International comparisons of hierarchical time series data sets based on survey data, such as annual country-level estimates of school enrollment rates, can suffer from large amounts of missing data due to differing coverage of surveys…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Daphne H. Liu , Adrian E. Raftery

In many supervised learning tasks, the entities to be labeled are related to each other in complex ways and their labels are not independent. For example, in hypertext classification, the labels of linked pages are highly correlated. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Ben Taskar , Pieter Abbeel , Daphne Koller

This paper introduces a framework for incorporating prior information into the design of sequential experiments. These sources may include past experiments, expert opinions, or the experimenter's intuition. We model the problem using a…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-01 Frederico Finan , Demian Pouzo

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Natraj Raman , Daniele Magazzeni , Sameena Shah

In public opinion studies, the relationships between opinions on different topics are likely to shift based on the characteristics of the respondents. Thus, understanding the complexities of public opinion requires methods that can account…

For in vivo research experiments with small sample sizes and available historical data, we propose a sequential Bayesian method for the Behrens-Fisher problem. We consider it as a model choice question with two models in competition: one…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Antoine Barbieri , Jean-Michel Marin , Karine Florin

Empirical Bayes methods have been around for a long time and have a wide range of applications. These methods provide a way in which historical data can be aggregated to provide estimates of the posterior mean. This thesis revisits some of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-17 Xiuwen Duan

In many applications, researchers seek to identify overlapping entities across multiple data files. Record linkage algorithms facilitate this task, in the absence of unique identifiers. As these algorithms rely on semi-identifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Gauri Kamat , Roee Gutman

A nonparametric Bayesian approach is developed to determine quantum potentials from empirical data for quantum systems at finite temperature. The approach combines the likelihood model of quantum mechanics with a priori information over…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 J. C. Lemm , J. Uhlig , A. Weiguny

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-15 Lizhen Xu , Radu V. Craiu , Lei Sun

Consider the following problem: given a database of records indexed by names (e.g., name of companies, restaurants, businesses, or universities) and a new name, determine whether the new name is in the database, and if so, which record it…

Databases · Computer Science 2018-06-29 Bahare Fatemi , Seyed Mehran Kazemi , David Poole

We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-12 Daniel G. Rasines , G. Alastair Young

Bayesian inference is attractive for its coherence and good frequentist properties. However, it is a common experience that eliciting a honest prior may be difficult and, in practice, people often take an {\em empirical Bayes} approach,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-04-09 Sonia Petrone , Judith Rousseau , Catia Scricciolo

In many settings, a data curator links records from two files to produce datasets that are shared with secondary analysts. Analysts use the linked files to estimate models of interest, such as regressions. Such two-stage approaches do not…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Xueyan Hu , Jerome P. Reiter

We introduce a general Bayesian framework for graph matching grounded in a new theory of exchangeable random permutations. Leveraging the cycle representation of permutations and the literature on exchangeable random partitions, we define,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Francesco Gaffi , Nathaniel Josephs , Lizhen Lin

The task of quantifying the inherent uncertainty associated with neural network predictions is a key challenge in artificial intelligence. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles are among the most prominent approaches to tackle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Valentin Villecroze , Yixin Wang , Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Vladimir Spokoiny

In theory, the probabilistic linkage method provides two distinct advantages over non-probabilistic methods, including minimal rates of linkage error and accurate measures of these rates for data users. However, implementations can fall…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-06 Abel Dasylva , Arthur Goussanou , David Ajavon , Hanan Abousaleh

We investigate the problem of reliably assessing group fairness when labeled examples are few but unlabeled examples are plentiful. We propose a general Bayesian framework that can augment labeled data with unlabeled data to produce more…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-21 Disi Ji , Padhraic Smyth , Mark Steyvers

We introduce a new incremental preference elicitation procedure able to deal with noisy responses of a Decision Maker (DM). The originality of the contribution is to propose a Bayesian approach for determining a preferred solution in a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-07-30 Nadjet Bourdache , Patrice Perny , Olivier Spanjaard