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Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a…
The article is focused on studying how to predict the failure times of coherent systems from the early failure times of their components. Both the cases of independent and dependent components are considered by assuming that they are…
The lifetime behaviour of loans is notoriously difficult to model, which can compromise a bank's financial reserves against future losses, if modelled poorly. Therefore, we present a data-driven comparative study amongst three techniques in…
We propose a fully probabilistic formulation of the notion of mechanistic interaction (interaction in some fundamental mechanistic sense) between the effects of putative (possibly continuous) causal factors A and B on a binary outcome…
We extend the Vasi\v{c}ek loan portfolio model to a setting where liabilities fluctuate randomly and asset values may be subject to systemic jump risk. We derive the probability distribution of the percentage loss of a uniform portfolio and…
Robustness and cascading failures in interdependent systems has been an active research field in the past decade. However, most existing works use percolation-based models where only the largest component of each network remains functional…
Power system robustness against high impact low probability events is becoming a major concern. To depict distinct phases of a system response during these disturbances, an irregular polygon model is derived from the conventional trapezoid…
We propose a stochastic model for evolution. Births and deaths of species occur with constant probabilities. Each new species is associated with a fitness sampled from the uniform distribution on [0,1]. Every time there is a death event…
Studying the reliability of complex systems using machine learning techniques involves facing a series of technical and practical challenges, ranging from the intrinsic nature of the system and data to the difficulties in modeling and…
Due to various sources of uncertainty, emergent behavior, and ongoing changes, the reliability of many socio-technical systems depends on an iterative and collaborative process in which organizations (1) analyze and learn from system…
We explicitly test if the reliability of credit ratings depends on the total number of admissible states. We analyse open access credit rating data and show that the effect of the number of states in the dynamical properties of ratings…
One of the commonly used approaches to capture dependence in multivariate survival data is through the frailty variables. The identifiability issues should be carefully investigated while modeling multivariate survival with or without…
The hypothesis of randomness is fundamental in statistical machine learning and in many areas of nonparametric statistics; it says that the observations are assumed to be independent and coming from the same unknown probability…
In biology and ecology, individuals or communities of individuals living in unpredictable environments often alternate between different evolutionary strategies to spread and reduce risks. Such behavior is commonly referred to as…
Correlations and other collective phenomena in a schematic model of heterogeneous binary agents (individual spin-glass samples) are considered on the complete graph and also on 2d and 3d regular lattices. The system's stochastic dynamics is…
We consider a physical asset consisting of complex systems, where the systems may require upgrades during the lifetime of the asset. In practice, the asset owner and system supplier can make the upgrade decisions together, requiring a…
Credit risk assessment is a crucial aspect of financial decision-making, enabling institutions to predict the likelihood of default and make informed lending decisions. Two prominent methodologies in credit risk modeling are logistic…
Effective software safety standards will contribute to confidence, or assurance, in the safety of the systems in which the software is used. It is infeasible to demonstrate a correlation between standards and accidents, but there is an…
A semicoherent system can be described by its structure function or, equivalently, by a lattice polynomial function expressing the system lifetime in terms of the component lifetimes. In this paper we point out the parallelism between the…
In natural phenomena, data distributions often deviate from normality. One can think of cataclysms as a self-explanatory example: events that occur almost never, and at the same time are many standard deviations away from the common…