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Many inference problems involve inferring the number $N$ of components in some region, along with their properties $\{\mathbf{x}_i\}_{i=1}^N$, from a dataset $\mathcal{D}$. A common statistical example is finite mixture modelling. In the…
Symbolic dynamics has proven to be an invaluable tool in analyzing the mechanisms that lead to unpredictability and random behavior in nonlinear dynamical systems. Surprisingly, a discrete partition of continuous state space can produce a…
The extended gaussian ensemble (EGE) is introduced as a generalization of the canonical ensemble. The new ensemble is a further extension of the Gaussian ensemble introduced by J. H. Hetherington [J. Low Temp. Phys. {\bf 66}, 145 (1987)].…
The best arm identification problem (BEST-1-ARM) is the most basic pure exploration problem in stochastic multi-armed bandits. The problem has a long history and attracted significant attention for the last decade. However, we do not yet…
The MaxEnt solutions are shown to display a variety of behaviors (beyond the traditional and customary exponential one) if adequate dynamical information is inserted into the concomitant entropic-variational principle. In particular, we…
In the Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problem, there is a given set of arms with unknown reward models. At each time, a player selects one arm to play, aiming to maximize the total expected reward over a horizon of length T. An approach based on…
In this article we investigate consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood and the posterior distribution of the parameters in the context of state space stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We then extend our…
This paper revisits the bandit problem in the Bayesian setting. The Bayesian approach formulates the bandit problem as an optimization problem, and the goal is to find the optimal policy which minimizes the Bayesian regret. One of the main…
Based on Jaynes' maximum entropy principle, exponential random graphs provide a family of principled models that allow the prediction of network properties as constrained by empirical data (observables). However, their use is often hindered…
We study a class of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) with jumps modeling multistage Michaelis--Menten enzyme kinetics, in which a substrate is sequentially transformed into a product via a cascade of intermediate complexes. These…
Probabilistic reasoning systems combine different probabilistic rules and probabilistic facts to arrive at the desired probability values of consequences. In this paper we describe the MESA-algorithm (Maximum Entropy by Simulated Annealing)…
The Renyi statistics in the canonical and microcanonical ensembles is examined in the general case and in particular for the ideal gas. In the microcanonical ensemble the Renyi statistics is equivalent with the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics.…
We present dynesty, a public, open-source, Python package to estimate Bayesian posteriors and evidences (marginal likelihoods) using Dynamic Nested Sampling. By adaptively allocating samples based on posterior structure, Dynamic Nested…
The traditional statistical inference is static, in the sense that the estimate of the quantity of interest does not affect the future evolution of the quantity. In some sequential estimation problems however, the future values of the…
We show that a large collection of statistical mechanical systems with quadratically represented Hamiltonians on the complete graph can be extended to infinite exchangeable processes. This extends a known result for the ferromagnetic…
Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…
We derive the stochastic version of the Magnus expansion for linear systems of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The main novelty with respect to the related literature is that we consider SDEs in the It\^o sense, with progressively…
Many scientific and engineering problems require to perform Bayesian inferences in function spaces, in which the unknowns are of infinite dimension. In such problems, many standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms become arbitrary…
In this paper, we, for the first time, establish two comparison theorems for multi-dimensional backward stochastic differential equations with jumps. Our approach is novel and completely different from the existing results for…
Some 80-90 years ago, George A. Linhart, unlike A. Einstein, P. Debye, M. Planck and W. Nernst, has managed to derive a very simple, but ultimately general mathematical formula for heat capacity vs. temperature from the fundamental…