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This work proposes a method for modeling and forecasting mortality rates. It constitutes an improvement over previous studies by incorporating both the historical evolution of the mortality phenomenon and its random behavior. In the first…
Scaling has been proposed as a powerful tool to analyze the properties of complex systems, and in particular for cities where it describes how various properties change with population. The empirical study of scaling on a wide range of…
Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…
This research explores how total mortality figures relate to age-standardized death rates within the United States, using the complete historical record of national mortality statistics. Through a detailed investigation of both all-cause…
Undulation of infection levels, usually called waves, are not well understood. In this paper we propose a mathematical model that exhibits undulation and decay towards a stable state. The model is a re-interpretation of the original…
This study leverages large-scale travel surveys for over 200,000 residents across Boston, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, and Sao Paulo. With rich individual-level data, we make systematic comparisons and reveal patterns in social mixing, which…
People rationalize their past choices, even those that were mistakes in hindsight. We propose a formal theory of this behavior. The theory predicts that sunk costs affect later choices. Its model primitives are identified by choice behavior…
Altruistic punishment, where individuals incur personal costs to punish others who have harmed third parties, presents an evolutionary conundrum as it undermines individual fitness. Resolving this puzzle is crucial for understanding the…
The last decades have not only been characterized by an explosive growth of data, but also an increasing appreciation of data as a valuable resource. Their value comes with the ability to extract meaningful patterns that are of economic,…
Emergence of hierarchies is investigated by Monte Carlo simulation in a timid society where all individuals are pacifist. The self-organiztion of hierarchies is shown to occur in two steps as the population is increased, i.e. there are…
We apply random matrix theory to study the impact of measurement uncertainty on dynamic mode decomposition. Specifically, when the measurements follow a normal probability density function, we show how the moments of that density propagate…
Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak…
This paper proposes a model to explain the potential role of inter-group conflicts in determining the rise and fall of signaling norms. Individuals in a population are characterized by high and low productivity types and they are matched in…
COVID-19 has led to excess deaths around the world, however it remains unclear how the mortality of other causes of death has changed during the pandemic. Aiming at understanding the wider impact of COVID-19 on other death causes, we study…
One of the most contested questions about human behaviour is whether there are inherent sex or gender differences in the formation and maintenance of social bonds. On one hand, female and male brains are structurally almost identical, and…
When looking at mass shooting incidents, suicidal shooters seem to carry an even more extreme sense of terror and brutality. The current study aimed to examine how mass shooters suicidality and suicide behavioral threshold influence the…
Aging is always present, tailoring our interactions with others and postulating a finite lifespan during which we are able to exercise them. We consider the prisoner's dilemma game on a square lattice, and examine how quenched age…
Multivariate spatial disease mapping has become a pivotal part of everyday practice in social epidemiology. Despite the existence of several specifications for the relation between different outcomes, there is still a need for a new…
At the physiological level, aging is neither rigid nor unchangeable. Instead, the molecular and mechanisms driving aging are sufficiently plastic that a variety of diverse interventions--dietary, pharmaceutical, and genetic--have been…
We consider continuous space-time decay-surge population models which are semi- stochastic processes for which deterministically declining populations, bound to fade away, are rein- vigorated at random times by bursts or surges of random…