Related papers: Bayesian Hidden Markov Modelling Using Circular-Li…
We develop a recursion for hidden Markov model of any order h, which allows us to obtain the posterior distribution of the latent state at every occasion, given the previous h states and the observed data. With respect to the well-known…
Infinite hidden Markov models provide a flexible framework for modelling time series with structural changes and complex dynamics, without requiring the number of latent states to be specified in advance. This flexibility is achieved…
The technological applications of hidden Markov models have been extremely diverse and successful, including natural language processing, gesture recognition, gene sequencing, and Kalman filtering of physical measurements. HMMs are highly…
The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is a widely recognised as an efficient method for sampling a specified posterior distribution. However, when the posterior is multi-modal, conventional MCMC algorithms either tend to become…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) comprise a powerful generative approach for modeling sequential data and time-series in general. However, the commonly employed assumption of the dependence of the current time frame to a single or multiple…
We present a stochastic model of population dynamics exploiting cross-sectional data in trend analysis and forecasts for groups and cohorts of a population. While sharing the convenient features of classic Markov models, it alleviates the…
In this study, we develop an approach to multivariate time series anomaly detection focused on the transformation of multivariate time series to univariate time series. Several transformation techniques involving Fuzzy C-Means (FCM)…
Inference for spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) for high-dimensional non-Gaussian spatial data is computationally intensive. The computational challenge is due to the high-dimensional random effects and because Markov chain…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most widely used statistical methods for analyzing sequence data. However, the reporting of output from HMMs has largely been restricted to the presentation of the most-probable (MAP) hidden state…
A challenge for practitioners of Bayesian inference is specifying a model that incorporates multiple relevant, heterogeneous data sets. It may be easier to instead specify distinct submodels for each source of data, then join the submodels…
Analysis of multivariate healthcare time series data is inherently challenging: irregular sampling, noisy and missing values, and heterogeneous patient groups with different dynamics violating exchangeability. In addition, interpretability…
For hydrological applications, such as urban flood modelling, it is often important to be able to simulate sub-daily rainfall time series from stochastic models. However, modelling rainfall at this resolution poses several challenges,…
We describe and analyze a broad class of mixture models for real-valued multivariate data in which the probability density of observations within each component of the model is represented as an arbitrary combination of basis functions.…
We propose a mixture of latent trait models with common slope parameters (MCLT) for model-based clustering of high-dimensional binary data, a data type for which few established methods exist. Recent work on clustering of binary data, based…
The missing data issue often complicates the task of estimating generalized linear models (GLMs). We describe why the pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, used in this setting, is an effective strategy for parameter estimation.…
We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives…
In many situations we are interested in modeling real data where the response distribution, even conditionally on the covariates, presents asymmetry and/or heavy/light tails. In these situations, it is more suitable to consider models based…
A new probabilistic post-processing method for wind vectors is presented in a distributional regression framework employing the bivariate Gaussian distribution. In contrast to previous studies all parameters of the distribution are…
We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy…
In this paper, we propose circular Hidden Quantum Markov Models (c-HQMMs), which can be applied for modeling temporal data in quantum datasets (with classical datasets as a special case). We show that c-HQMMs are equivalent to a constrained…