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The paper introduces a new methodology for assessing on-line the prediction risk of short-term wind power forecasts. The first part of this methodology consists in computing confidence intervals with a confidence level defined by the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-10-05 Georges Kariniotakis , Pierre Pinson

This study investigates the transformation of energy models to align with machine learning requirements as a promising tool for optimizing the operation of combined cycle power plants (CCPPs). By modeling energy production as a function of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-21 Mir Sayed Shah Danish , Zahra Nazari , Tomonobu Senjyu

An accurate and timely assessment of wind speed and energy output allows an efficient planning and management of this resource on the power grid. Wind energy, especially at high resolution, calls for the development of nonlinear statistical…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-17 Matthew Bonas , Paolo Giani , Paola Crippa , Stefano Castruccio

Accurately predicting the wind power output of a wind farm across various time scales utilizing Wind Power Forecasting (WPF) is a critical issue in wind power trading and utilization. The WPF problem remains unresolved due to numerous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-29 Hongjin Song , Qianrun Chen , Tianqi Jiang , Yongfeng Li , Xusheng Li , Wenjun Xi , Songtao Huang

In the wind energy industry, it is of great importance to develop models that accurately forecast the power output of a wind turbine, as such predictions are used for wind farm location assessment or power pricing and bidding, monitoring,…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-13 Sándor Kolumbán , Stella Kapodistria , Nazanin Nooraee

We study a smart grid with wind power and battery storage. Traditionally, day-ahead planning aims to balance demand and wind power, yet actual wind conditions often deviate from forecasts. Short-term flexibility in storage and generation…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-08 Thom S. Badings , Arnd Hartmanns , Nils Jansen , Marnix Suilen

This paper develops a spectral fitting technology based on the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, which is applied to a calibration-free wavelength modulation spectroscopy system to achieve concentration retrieval. As compared…

Instrumentation and Detectors · Physics 2022-12-13 Tingting Zhang , Yongjie Sun , Pengpeng Wang , Cunguang Zhu

With the decline of fossil fuel reserves and the escalating global average temperature, the quest for environmentally friendly and renewable energy sources has gained significant momentum. Focus has turned to wind and photovoltaic energy,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-18 Irfan Rahman , Farheen Suha , Ashik Ahmed

Wind energy makes a significant contribution to global power generation. Predicting wind turbine capacity is becoming increasingly crucial for cleaner production. For this purpose, a new information priority accumulated grey model with time…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-22 Jie Xia , Xin Ma , Wenqing Wu , Baolian Huang , Wanpeng Li

This work proposes an automatic methodology for modeling complex systems. Our methodology is based on the combination of Grammatical Evolution and classical regression to obtain an optimal set of features that take part of a linear and…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Patricia Arroba , José L. Risco-Martín , Marina Zapater , José M. Moya , José L. Ayala

Higher levels of renewable electricity generation increase uncertainty in power system operation. To ensure secure system operation, new tools that account for this uncertainty are required. In this paper, we formulate a chance-constrained…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-07 Line Roald , Göran Andersson

The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm has been recently introduced in the non--linear programming, becoming widely studied and used in a variety of applications. Starting from its original formulation, many variants for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-15 Silvano Chiaradonna , Felicita Di Giandomenico , Nadir Murru

This paper proposes a data-driven algorithm for model order reduction (MOR) of large-scale wind farms and studies the effects that the obtained reduced-order model (ROM) has when this is integrated into the power grid. With respect to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-16 Zilong Gong , Junyu Mao , Adrià Junyent-Ferré , Giordano Scarciotti

Probabilistic wind power forecasting approaches have significantly advanced in recent decades. However, forecasters often assume data completeness and overlook the challenge of missing values resulting from sensor failures, network…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-25 Honglin Wen

Efficiently planning an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) path is crucial, especially in dynamic settings where potential threats are prevalent. A Dynamic Path Planner (DPP) for UAV using the Spherical Vector-based Particle Swarm Optimisation…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-03-20 Mohssen E. Elshaar , Mohammed R. Elbalshy , A. Hussien , Mohammed Abido

Solar flares are a primary driver of space weather, and forecasting their occurrence remains a significant challenge. This paper presents a novel flare prediction model based on topologically derived photospheric magnetic parameters. We…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-18 Thomas Williams , Christopher B. Prior , David MacTaggart , D. Shaun Bloomfield

Accurate wind speed prediction is crucial for designing and selecting sites for offshore wind farms. This paper investigates the effectiveness of various machine learning models in predicting offshore wind power for a site near the Gulf of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-19 Linhan Fang , Fan Jiang , Ann Mary Toms , Xingpeng Li

Traditional methods present a very restrictive range of applications, mainly limited by the features of the function to be optimized and of the constraint functions. In contrast, evolutionary algorithms present almost no restriction to the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Mauro S. Innocente , Johann Sienz

This paper presents an adaptive stochastic spectral embedding (ASSE) method to solve the probabilistic AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF), a critical aspect of power system operation. The proposed method can efficiently and accurately estimate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-22 Xiaoting Wang , Jingyu Liu , Xiaozhe Wang

A particle swarm optimizer (PSO) loosely based on the phenomena of crystallization and a chaos factor which follows the complimentary error function is described. The method features three phases: diffusion, directed motion, and nucleation.…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-02-13 Casey Kneale , Karl S. Booksh