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We present a variational method for online state estimation and parameter learning in state-space models (SSMs), a ubiquitous class of latent variable models for sequential data. As per standard batch variational techniques, we use…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-16 Andrew Campbell , Yuyang Shi , Tom Rainforth , Arnaud Doucet

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

We present a new transport-based approach to efficiently perform sequential Bayesian inference of static model parameters. The strategy is based on the extraction of conditional distribution from the joint distribution of parameters and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-29 Paul-Baptiste Rubio , Youssef Marzouk , Matthew Parno

We consider the problem of static Bayesian inference for partially observed Levy-process models. We develop a methodology which allows one to infer static parameters and some states of the process, without a bias from the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-04-01 Hamza Ruzayqat , Ajay Jasra

This article develops a methodology allowing application of the complete machinery of particle-based inference methods upon the class of continuous-discrete State Space Models (CD-SSMs). Such models correspond to a latent continuous-time…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-17 Christopher Stanton , Alexandros Beskos

A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-24 Zuofeng Shang , Ping Li

State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of data points related to the state are…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-22 Benjamin Cox , Victor Elvira

Many real-world systems modeled using differential equations involve unknown or uncertain parameters. Standard approaches to address parameter estimation inverse problems in this setting typically focus on estimating constants; yet some…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-25 Anna Fitzpatrick , Molly Folino , Andrea Arnold

In spite of the diverse literature on nonstationary spatial modeling and approximate Gaussian process (GP) methods, there are no general approaches for conducting fully Bayesian inference for moderately sized nonstationary spatial data sets…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-01 Mark D. Risser , Daniel Turek

We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Philippe Bisaillon , Brandon Robinson , Mohammad Khalil , Chris L. Pettit , Dominique Poirel , Abhijit Sarkar

We present an approach for synthesising observational data with elastodynamic finite element models by extending the statistical finite element method (statFEM) framework. The proposed formulation adopts a Bayesian filtering approach to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-15 Igor Kavrakov , Yaswanth Sai Jetti , Ahmet Oguzhan Yuksel , Fehmi Cirak

The problem of system identification for the Kalman filter, relying on the expectation-maximization (EM) procedure to learn the underlying parameters of a dynamical system, has largely been studied assuming that observations are sampled at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Peter Halmos , Jonathan Pillow , David A. Knowles

System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-27 Christos Merkatas , Simo Särkkä

A new Bayesian approach to linear system identification has been proposed in a series of recent papers. The main idea is to frame linear system identification as predictor estimation in an infinite dimensional space, with the aid of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-03 Diego Romeres , Gianluigi Pillonetto , Alessandro Chiuso

Approximate Bayesian computation methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper we discuss and apply an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on sequential Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2009-01-15 Tina Toni , David Welch , Natalja Strelkowa , Andreas Ipsen , Michael P. H. Stumpf

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach for multiscale problems with the availability of dynamic observational data. Our method selects important degrees of freedom probabilistically in a Generalized multiscale finite element method…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-18 Siu Wun Cheung , Nilabja Guha

A nonparametric Bayesian sparse graph linear dynamical system (SGLDS) is proposed to model sequentially observed multivariate data. SGLDS uses the Bernoulli-Poisson link together with a gamma process to generate an infinite dimensional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-22 Rahi Kalantari , Joydeep Ghosh , Mingyuan Zhou

In this paper, we propose a non-parametric method for state estimation of high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems, which evolve according to gradient flows with isotropic diffusion. We combine diffusion maps, a manifold…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-02-26 Tal Shnitzer , Ronen Talmon , Jean-Jacques Slotine

Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-09 John Parslow , Noel Cressie , Edward P. Campbell , Emlyn Jones , Lawrence Murray

The Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter is proposed for state estimation and fault diagnosis in distributed parameter systems and particularly in dynamical systems described by partial differential equations of the nonlinear wave type.…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2013-11-05 Gerasimos G. Rigatos