Related papers: Maximum Entropy Production Principle for Stock Ret…
Researchers have constantly asked whether stock returns can be predicted by some macroeconomic data. However, it is known that macroeconomic data may exhibit nonstationarity and/or heavy tails, which complicates existing testing procedures…
We introduce a class of random mechanical systems called random billiards to study the problem of quantifying the irreversibility of nonequilibrium macroscopic systems. In a random billiard model, a point particle evolves by free motion…
In this report, we talked about a new quantitative strategy for choosing the optimal(s) stock(s) to trade. The basic notions are generally very known by the financial community. The key here is to understand 1) the standard score applied to…
We present a framework to address a class of sequential decision making problems. Our framework features learning the optimal control policy with robustness to noisy data, determining the unknown state and action parameters, and performing…
Long memory and volatility clustering are two stylized facts frequently related to financial markets. Traditionally, these phenomena have been studied based on conditionally heteroscedastic models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH, inter…
With the rapid expansion of graphs and networks and the growing magnitude of data from all areas of science, effective treatment and compression schemes of context-dependent data is extremely desirable. A particularly interesting direction…
Markets efficiency implies that the stock returns are intrinsically unpredictable, a property that makes markets comparable to random number generators. We present a novel methodology to investigate ultra-high frequency financial data and…
One of the most important studies in finance is to find out whether stock returns could be predicted. This research aims to create a new multivariate model, which includes dividend yield, earnings-to-price ratio, book-to-market ratio as…
In the previous papers (Kui\'{c} et al. in Found Phys 42:319-339, 2012; Kui\'{c} in arXiv:1506.02622, 2015), it was demonstrated that applying the principle of maximum information entropy by maximizing the conditional information entropy,…
The stock market prediction has always been crucial for stakeholders, traders and investors. We developed an ensemble Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model that includes two-time frequencies (annual and daily parameters) in order to predict…
Within a framework of utmost generality, we show that the entropy maximization procedure with linear constraints uniquely leads to the Shannon-Boltzmann-Gibbs entropy. Therefore, the use of this procedure with linear constraints should not…
As operators acting on the undetermined final settlement of a derivative security, expectation is linear but price is non-linear. When the market of underlying securities is incomplete, non-linearity emerges from the bid-offer around the…
We develop a framework for stochastic portfolio theory (SPT), which incorporates modern nonlinear price impact and impact decay models. Our main result is the derivation of the celebrated master formula for additive functional generation of…
We introduce a method for quantifying the inherent unpredictability of a continuous-valued time series via an extension of the differential Shannon entropy rate. Our extension, the specific entropy rate, quantifies the amount of predictive…
Language prediction is constrained by informational entropy intrinsic to language, such that there exists a limit to how accurate any language model can become and equivalently a lower bound to language compression. The most efficient…
We study inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) and imitation learning (IM), the problems of recovering a reward or policy function from expert's demonstrated trajectories. We propose a new way to improve the learning process by adding a…
We consider the weighted least squares spline approximation of a noisy dataset. By interpreting the weights as a probability distribution, we maximize the associated entropy subject to the constraint that the mean squared error is…
Training a practical and effective model for stock selection has been a greatly concerned problem in the field of artificial intelligence. Even though some of the models from previous works have achieved good performance in the U.S. market…
In stochastic thermodynamics, the entropy production of a thermodynamic system is defined by the irreversibility measured by the logarithm of the ratio of the path probabilities in the forward and reverse processes. We derive the relation…
We study a quantity called discrete layered entropy, which approximates the Shannon entropy within a logarithmic gap. Compared to the Shannon entropy, the discrete layered entropy is piecewise linear, approximates the expected length of the…