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This study evaluates the scale-dependent informational efficiency of stock markets using the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor-eigenvalue-based measure of realized volatility. Incorporating Granger causality and network-theoretic analysis…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-06 Masoud Ataei

This paper explores the potential of the transformer models for learning Granger causality in networks with complex nonlinear dynamics at every node, as in neurobiological and biophysical networks. Our study primarily focuses on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ziyu Lu , Anika Tabassum , Shruti Kulkarni , Lu Mi , J. Nathan Kutz , Eric Shea-Brown , Seung-Hwan Lim

A financial system contains many elements networked by their relationships. Extensive works show that topological structure of the network stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system such as early warning signals of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-09 Li Zhou , Lu Qiu , Changgui Gu , Huijie Yang

The paper presents a comprehensive causality analysis of the US stock and commodity markets during the COVID-19 crash. The dynamics of different sectors are also compared. We use Topological Data Analysis (TDA) on multidimensional…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-21 Buddha Nath Sharma , Anish Rai , SR Luwang , Md. Nurujjaman , Sushovan Majhi

While market is a social field where information flows over the interacting agents, there have been not so many methods to observe the spreading information in the prices comprising the market. By incorporating the entropy transfer in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-10-19 Hokky Situngkir

Granger causality can uncover the cause and effect relationships in financial networks. However, such networks can be convoluted and difficult to interpret, but the Helmholtz-Hodge-Kodaira decomposition can split them into a rotational and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-26 Tobias Wand , Oliver Kamps , Hiroshi Iyetomi

We introduce a rigorous mathematical framework for Granger causality in extremes, designed to identify causal links from extreme events in time series. Granger causality plays a pivotal role in uncovering directional relationships among…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-21 Juraj Bodik , Olivier C. Pasche

We use supervised learning to identify factors that predict the cross-section of returns and maximum drawdown for stocks in the US equity market. Our data run from January 1970 to December 2019 and our analysis includes ordinary least…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-05 Lisa R. Goldberg , Saad Mouti

This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-06-17 Anna Zaremba , Tomaso Aste

Cross-slice attack attribution in 6G networks faces the fundamental challenge of distinguishing genuine causal relationships from spurious correlations in shared infrastructure environments. We propose a theoretically-grounded…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Minh K. Quan , Pubudu N. Pathirana

Neural processes in the brain operate at a range of temporal scales. Granger causality, the most widely-used neuroscientific tool for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophsyiological data, is traditionally deployed in…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-17 Lionel Barnett , Anil K. Seth

Since the beginning of the new millennium, stock markets went through every state from long-time troughs, trade suspensions to all-time highs. The literature on asset pricing hence assumes random processes to be underlying the movement of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-26 Tanya Araújo , Maximilian Göbel

We study causality between bivariate curve time series using the Granger causality generalized measures of correlation. With this measure, we can investigate which curve time series Granger-causes the other; in turn, it helps determine the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-21 Han Lin Shang , Kaiying Ji , Ufuk Beyaztas

Stock market comovements are examined using cointegration, Granger causality tests and nonlinear approaches in context of mutual information and correlations. Underlying data sets are affected by non-stationarities and trends, we also apply…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-07 Paulo Ferreira , Andreia Dionísio , S. M. S. Movahed

We show that recent stock market fluctuations are characterized by the cumulative distributions whose tails on short, minute time scales exhibit power scaling with the scaling index alpha > 3 and this index tends to increase quickly with…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 S. Drozdz , M. Forczek , J. Kwapien , P. Oswiecimka , R. Rak

Physicists are starting to work in areas where noisy signal analysis is required. In these fields, such as Economics, Neuroscience, and Physics, the notion of causality should be interpreted as a statistical measure. We introduce to the lay…

Granger-causality in the frequency domain is an emerging tool to analyze the causal relationship between two time series. We propose a bootstrap test on unconditional and conditional Granger-causality spectra, as well as on their…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-07 Matteo Farné , Angela Montanari

The stock market's reaction to the external risk shock is closely related to the cross-shareholding network structure. This paper takes the public information of listed companies in the A-share securities market as the primary sample to…

General Economics · Economics 2022-12-06 Yujue Wang

A novel approach is developed for discovering directed connectivity between specified pairs of nodes in a high-dimensional network (HDN) of brain signals. To accurately identify causal connectivity for such specified objectives, it is…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-06 Sipan Aslan , Hernando Ombao

Causality in time series can be challenging to determine, especially in the presence of non-linear dependencies. Granger causality helps analyze potential relationships between variables, thereby offering a method to determine whether one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Harsh Poonia , Felix Divo , Kristian Kersting , Devendra Singh Dhami