Related papers: Value-at-Risk time scaling for long-term risk esti…
Accurate forecasting of risk is the key to successful risk management techniques. Using the largest stock index futures from twelve European bourses, this paper presents VaR measures based on their unconditional and conditional…
We study a continuous-time portfolio optimization problem under an explicit constraint on the Deviation Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCVaR), defined as the difference between the CVaR and the expected terminal wealth. While the mean-CVaR…
We study a linear-quadratic, optimal control problem on a discrete, finite time horizon with distributional ambiguity, in which the cost is assessed via Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We take steps toward deriving a scalable dynamic…
Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticised for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found…
We tackle the problem of estimating risk measures of the infinite-horizon discounted cost within a Markov cost process. The risk measures we study include variance, Value-at-Risk (VaR), and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). First, we show…
In high-stakes machine learning applications, it is crucial to not only perform well on average, but also when restricted to difficult examples. To address this, we consider the problem of training models in a risk-averse manner. We propose…
This paper formulates algorithms to upper-bound the maximum Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a state function along trajectories of stochastic processes. The VaR is upper bounded by two methods: minimax tail-bounds (Cantelli/Vysochanskij-Petunin) and…
Scaling and multiscaling financial time series have been widely studied in the literature. The research on this topic is vast and still flourishing. One way to analyze the scaling properties of time series is through the estimation of their…
This paper aims to more effectively manage and mitigate stock market risks by accurately characterizing financial market returns and volatility. We enhance the Stochastic Volatility (SV) model by incorporating fat-tailed distributions and…
Rapidly evolving market conditions call for real-time risk monitoring, but its online estimation remains challenging. In this paper, we study the online estimation of one of the most widely used risk measures, Value at Risk (VaR). Its…
By mid 2004, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is epected to launch its final recommendations on minimum capital requirements in the banking industry. Although there is the intention to arrive at capital charges which concur…
Revisiting the continuous-time Mean-Variance (MV) Portfolio Optimization problem, we model the market dynamics with a jump-diffusion process and apply Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques to facilitate informed exploration within the…
The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…
Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…
Recently, financial industry and regulators have enhanced the debate on the good properties of a risk measure. A fundamental issue is the evaluation of the quality of a risk estimation. On the one hand, a backtesting procedure is desirable…
We develop a risk-averse safety analysis method for stochastic systems on discrete infinite time horizons. Our method quantifies the notion of risk for a control system in terms of the severity of a harmful random outcome in a fraction of…
We show how one can actually take advantage of the strongly non-Gaussian nature of the fluctuations of financial assets to simplify the calculation of the Value-at-Risk of complex non linear portfolios. The resulting equations are not hard…
The ability to make optimal decisions under uncertainty remains important across a variety of disciplines from portfolio management to power engineering. This generally implies applying some safety margins on uncertain parameters that may…
Instead of controlling "symmetric" risks measured by central moments of investment return or terminal wealth, more and more portfolio models have shifted their focus to manage "asymmetric" downside risks that the investment return is below…
We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…