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Background: Continuous traits evolution of a group of taxa that are correlated through a phylogenetic tree is commonly modelled using parametric stochastic differential equations to represent deterministic change of trait through time,…

We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian \cite{gupta1999matrix} parameter posterior…

The incomplete sampling of data in complex polarization measurements from radio telescopes negatively affects both the rotation measure (RM) transfer function and the Faraday depth spectra derived from these data. Such gaps in polarization…

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…

Probabilistic programming provides the means to represent and reason about complex probabilistic models using programming language constructs. Even simple probabilistic programs can produce models with infinitely many variables. Factored…

Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters together with a likelihood. Eliciting meaningful priors on the weight space of modern overparameterized models is notoriously difficult, and misspecification…

We present a novel Kalman filter for spatiotemporal systems called the numerical Gaussian process Kalman filter (GPKF). Numerical Gaussian processes have recently been introduced as a physics informed machine learning method for simulating…

People are rated and ranked, towards algorithmic decision making in an increasing number of applications, typically based on machine learning. Research on how to incorporate fairness into such tasks has prevalently pursued the paradigm of…

Mixtures of experts probabilistically divide the input space into regions, where the assumptions of each expert, or conditional model, need only hold locally. Combined with Gaussian process (GP) experts, this results in a powerful and…

The Pairwise Markov Chain (PMC) is a probabilistic graphical model extending the well-known Hidden Markov Model. This model, although highly effective for many tasks, has been scarcely utilized for continuous value prediction. This is…

We propose a dynamic factor model (DFM) where the latent factors are linked to observed variables with unknown and potentially nonlinear functions. The key novelty and source of flexibility of our approach is a nonparametric observation…

The stochastic partial differential equation approach to Gaussian processes (GPs) represents Mat\'ern GP priors in terms of $n$ finite element basis functions and Gaussian coefficients with sparse precision matrix. Such representations…

This study presents PRISM, a probabilistic simplex component analysis approach to identifying the vertices of a data-circumscribing simplex from data. The problem has a rich variety of applications, the most notable being hyperspectral…

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a key technique for feature extraction and widely used in source separation. However, existing algorithms may converge to poor local minima, or to one of several minima with similar objective value…

We consider the probabilistic analogue to neural network matrix factorization (Dziugaite & Roy, 2015), which we construct with Bayesian neural networks and fit with variational inference. We find that a linear model fit with variational…

Projection predictive inference is a decision theoretic Bayesian approach that decouples model estimation from decision making. Given a reference model previously built including all variables present in the data, projection predictive…

Factorization machine (FM) variants are widely used for large scale real-time content recommendation systems, since they offer an excellent balance between model accuracy and low computational costs for training and inference. These systems…

In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider…

Estimating causal quantities traditionally relies on bespoke estimators tailored to specific assumptions. Recently proposed Causal Foundation Models (CFMs) promise a more unified approach by amortising causal discovery and inference in a…