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We study counterfactual stochastic optimization of conditional loss functionals under misspecified and noisy gradient information. The difficulty is that when the conditioning event has vanishing or zero probability, naive Monte Carlo…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Vikram Krishnamurthy , Luke Snow

This article develops general conditions for weak convergence of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo processes and is shown to imply a weak law of large numbers for bounded Lipschitz continuous functions. This allows an estimation theory for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Austin Brown , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

We propose a variational method to solve all three estimation problems for nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems: prediction, filtering, and smoothing. Our new approach is based upon a proper choice of cost function, termed the {\it…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Gregory L. Eyink

We consider the equations of motion for an incompressible Non-Newtonian fluid in a bounded Lipschitz domain $G\subset\mathbb R^d$ during the time intervall $(0,T)$ together with a stochastic perturbation driven by a Brownian motion $W$. The…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2017-01-11 Dominic Breit

Motivated by problems from statistical analysis for discretely sampled SPDEs, first we derive central limit theorems for higher order finite differences applied to stochastic process with arbitrary finitely regular paths. These results are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-09 Igor Cialenco , Hyun-Jung Kim , Gregor Pasemann

We unify Brownian motion and quantum mechanics in a single mathematical framework. In particular, we show that non-relativistic quantum mechanics of a single spinless particle on a flat space can be described by a Wiener process that is…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-06-06 Folkert Kuipers

Rate processes are simple and analytically tractable models for many dynamical systems which switch stochastically between a discrete set of quasi stationary states but they may also approximate continuous processes by coarse grained,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-03-11 R. Toenjes , H. Kori

A general, variational approach to derive low-order reduced systems for nonlinear systems subject to an autonomous forcing, is introduced. The approach is based on the concept of optimal parameterizing manifold (PM) that substitutes the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-01-08 Mickaël D. Chekroun , Honghu Liu , James C. McWilliams

When the limiting compensator of a sequence of martingales is continuous, we obtain a weak convergence theorem for the martingales; the limiting process can be written as a Brownian motion evaluated at the compensator and we find sufficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-22 Bruno Rémillard , Jean Vaillancourt

For any real-valued stochastic process $X$ with c\'rdl\'rg paths we define non-empty family of processes which have locally finite total variation, have jumps of the same order as the process $X$ and uniformly approximate its paths on…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-26 Rafał M. Łochowski

We consider a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process involving a stochastic forcing term in the drift, as a solution of a linear stochastic differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion. For such process we specify mean and…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-25 Giacomo Ascione , Yuliya Mishura , Enrica Pirozzi

In this work, we introduce a new method to prove the existence and uniqueness of a variational solution to the stochastic nonlinear diffusion equation $dX(t)={\rm div} [\frac{\nabla X(t)}{|\nabla X(t)|}]dt+X(t)dW(t) in…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Michael Röckner , Viorel Barbu

The paper deals with the asymptotic laws of functional of standard random variables. These classes of statistics are closely related to estimators of the extreme value index when the underlying distribution function is in the Weibull domain…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-22 Gane Samb Lo , Adja Mbarka Fall , Cheikhna Hamallah Ndiaye , Akym Adekpejou

The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process can be seen as a paradigm of a finite-variance and statistically stationary rough random walk. Furthermore, it is defined as the unique solution of a Markovian stochastic dynamics and shares the same local…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-05 Laurent Chevillard , Marc Lagoin , Stephane G. Roux

This paper provides a large deviation principle for Non-Markovian, Brownian motion driven stochastic differential equations with random coefficients. Similar to Gao and Liu \cite{GL}, this extends the corresponding results collected in…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-22 Jin Ma , Zhenjie Ren , Nizar Touzi , Jianfeng Zhang

This work develops a comprehensive mathematical theory for a class of stochastic processes whose local regularity adapts dynamically in response to their own state. We first introduce and rigorously analyze a time-varying fractional…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-22 Jiahao Jiang

We establish It\^o's formula along flows of probability measures associated with general semimartingales; this generalizes existing results for flows of measures on It\^o processes. Our approach is to first establish It\^o's formula for…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Xin Guo , Huyên Pham , Xiaoli Wei

We introduce the concept of functions of locally bounded variation on abstract Wiener spaces and study their properties. Some nontrivial examples and applications to stochastic analysis are also discussed.

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-16 Masanori Hino

We obtain invariance principles for a wide class of fractionally integrated nonlinear processes. The limiting distributions are shown to be fractional Brownian motions. Under very mild conditions, we extend earlier ones on long memory…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Wei Biao Wu , Xiaofeng Shao

We consider a Markov jump process on a general state space to which we apply a time-dependent weak perturbation over a finite time interval. By martingale-based stochastic calculus, under a suitable exponential moment bound for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Alessandra Faggionato , Vittoria Silvestri