Related papers: Bayesian estimation of realized stochastic volatil…
In recent years, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm has been found to work more efficiently compared to other popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (such as random walk Metropolis-Hastings) in generating samples from a…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) exploits Hamiltonian dynamics to construct efficient proposals for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In this paper, we present a generalization of HMC which exploits \textit{non-canonical} Hamiltonian dynamics.…
The stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) and the corresponding Monte Carlo (MC) method are among the most common approaches for studying stochastic processes. They rely on knowledge of interevent probability density functions (PDFs) and on…
Hamiltonian Flow Monte Carlo(HFMC) methods have been implemented in engineering, biology and chemistry. HFMC makes large gradient based steps to rapidly explore the state space. The application of the Hamiltonian dynamics allows to estimate…
This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…
We study the performance of an automated hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) approach for conditional simulation of a recently proposed, single-parameter Gibbs Markov random field (Gibbs MRF). The MRF is based on a modified version of the planar…
The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for continuous-time Markov chains, first introduced by Anderson and Higham (SIAM Multiscal Model. Simul. 10(1), 2012), is a highly efficient simulation technique that can be used to estimate various…
In Bayesian inference, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm known for its efficiency in sampling from complex probability distributions. However, its application to models with latent…
The sampling efficiency of MCMC methods in Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility (SV) models is known to highly depend on the actual parameter values, and the effectiveness of samplers based on different parameterizations varies…
We investigate the problem of computing a nested expectation of the form $\mathbb{P}[\mathbb{E}[X|Y] \!\geq\!0]\!=\!\mathbb{E}[\textrm{H}(\mathbb{E}[X|Y])]$ where $\textrm{H}$ is the Heaviside function. This nested expectation appears, for…
Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…
Simulation Based Calibration (SBC) is applied to analyse two commonly used, competing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating the posterior distribution of a stochastic volatility model. In particular, the bespoke 'off-set…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…
We report on what seems to be an intriguing connection between variable integration time and partial velocity refreshment of Ideal Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers, both of which can be used for reducing the dissipative behavior of the…
We propose a modified power method for computing the subdominant eigenvalue $\lambda_2$ of a matrix or continuous operator. Here we focus on defining simple Monte Carlo methods for its application. The methods presented use random walkers…
In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…
In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) for deterministic and uncertain hyperbolic systems, where randomness is introduced either in the modeling parameters or in the approximation algorithms.…
In this paper, we introduce efficient ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods for Bayesian computations in the univariate stochastic volatility model. We compare the performance of our ensemble MCMC methods with an…
An appropriate iterative scheme for the minimization of the energy, based on the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) technique, is introduced and compared with existing stochastic schemes. We test the various methods for the 1D Heisenberg ring…
When statistical analyses consider multiple data sources, Markov melding provides a method for combining the source-specific Bayesian models. Markov melding joins together submodels that have a common quantity. One challenge is that the…