Related papers: Surprise probabilities in Markov chains

Let X be a locally finite, connected graph without vertices of degree 1. Non-backtracking random walk moves at each step with equal probability to one of the "forward" neighbours of the actual state, i.e., it does not go back along the…

We give an example of a transient reversible Markov chain that almost surely has only a finite number of cutpoints. We explain how this is relevant to a conjecture of Diaconis and Freedman and a question of Kaimanovich. We also answer…

We study a strongly Non-Markovian variant of random walk in which the probability of visiting a given site $i$ is a function $f$ of number of previous visits $v(i)$ to the site. If the probability is proportional to number of visits to the…

We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…

For a Markov chain $Y$ with values in a Polish space, consider the entrance chain, obtained by sampling $Y$ at the moments when it enters a fixed set $A$ from its complement $A^c$. Similarly, consider the exit chain, obtained by sampling…

For an ergodic Markov chain $\{X(t)\}$ on $\Bbb N$, with a stationary distribution $\pi$, let $T_n>0$ denote a hitting time for $[n]^c$, and let $X_n=X(T_n)$. Around 2005 Guy Louchard popularized a conjecture that, for $n\to \infty$, $T_n$…

Let $X$ be the constrained random walk on ${\mathbb Z}_+^2$ taking the steps $(1,0)$, $(-1,1)$ and $(0,-1)$ with probabilities $\lambda < (\mu_1\neq \mu_2)$; in particular, $X$ is assumed stable. Let $\tau_n$ be the first time $X$ hits…

Let $(\tau_x)_{x \in \Z^d}$ be i.i.d. random variables with heavy (polynomial) tails. Given $a \in [0,1]$, we consider the Markov process defined by the jump rates $\omega_{x \to y} = {\tau_x}^{-(1-a)} {\tau_y}^a$ between two neighbours $x$…

This paper quantifies the asymptotic order of the largest singular value of a centered random matrix built from the path of a Block Markov Chain (BMC). In a BMC there are $n$ labeled states, each state is associated to one of $K$ clusters,…

We suggest a non-asymptotic matrix perturbation-theoretic approach to get sharp bounds on the expected meeting time of random walks on large (possibly random) graphs. We provide a formula for the expected meeting time in terms of the…

How much time does it take for a fluctuating system, such as a polymer chain, to reach a target configuration that is rarely visited -- typically because of a high energy cost ? This question generally amounts to the determination of the…

We consider continuous-space, discrete-time Markov chains on $\mathbb{R}^d$, that admit a finite number $N$ of metastable states. Our main motivation for investigating these processes is to analyse random Poincar\'e maps, which describe…

The first-passage time (FPT) is the time it takes a system variable to cross a given boundary for the first time. In the context of Markov networks, the FPT is the time a random walker takes to reach a particular node (target) by hopping…

We consider a one-dimensional Brownian motion of fixed duration $T$. Using a path-integral technique, we compute exactly the probability distribution of the difference $\tau=t_{\min}-t_{\max}$ between the time $t_{\min}$ of the global…

We consider moments of the return times (or first hitting times) in a discrete time discrete space Markov chain. It is classical that the finiteness of the first moment of a return time of one state implies the finiteness of the first…

A simple random walk on a graph is a sequence of movements from one vertex to another where at each step an edge is chosen uniformly at random from the set of edges incident on the current vertex, and then transitioned to next vertex.…

We present a closed-form, computable expression for the expected number of times any transition event occurs during the transient phase of a reducible Markov chain. Examples of events include time to absorption, number of visits to a state,…

We consider weighted graphs satisfying sub-Gaussian estimate for the natural random walk. On such graphs, we study symmetric Markov chains with heavy tailed jumps. We establish a threshold behavior of such Markov chains when the index…

In the present paper we show that for any given digraph $\mathbb{G} =([n], \vec{E})$, i.e. an oriented graph without self-loops and 2-cycles, one can construct a 1-dependent Markov chain and $n$ identically distributed hitting times $T_1,…

Given a permutation sigma of the integers {-n,-n+1,...,n} we consider the Markov chain X_{sigma}, which jumps from k to sigma (k\pm 1) equally likely if k\neq -n,n. We prove that the expected hitting time of {-n,n} starting from any point…