Related papers: Nowcasting economic and social data: when and why …
Online platforms have transformed the way in which individuals access and interact with news, with a high degree of trust particularly placed in search engine results. We use web tracked behavioral data across a 2-month period and analyze…
This aim of this article is to explore the potential use of Wikipedia page view data for predicting electoral results. Responding to previous critiques of work using socially generated data to predict elections, which have argued that these…
Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics…
This paper uses a new textual data index for predicting stock market data. The index is applied to a large set of news to evaluate the importance of one or more general economic-related keywords appearing in the text. The index assesses the…
The relationship between electricity demand and weather is well established in power systems, along with the importance of behavioral and social aspects such as holidays and significant events. This study explores the link between…
Search engines today present results that are often oblivious to abrupt shifts in intent. For example, the query `independence day' usually refers to a US holiday, but the intent of this query abruptly changed during the release of a major…
The ability to estimate current affective statuses of web users has considerable potential towards the realization of user-centric opportune services. However, determining the type of data to be used for such estimation as well as…
To uncover underlying mechanism of collective human dynamics, we survey more than 1.8 billion blog entries and observe the statistical properties of word appearances. We focus on words that show dynamic growth and decay with a tendency to…
Measuring and forecasting migration patterns, and how they change over time, has important implications for understanding broader population trends, for designing policy effectively and for allocating resources. However, data on migration…
The main goal of syndromic surveillance systems is early detection of an outbreak in a society using available data sources. In this paper, we discuss what are the challenges of syndromic surveillance systems and how continuous Artificial…
Knowledge about the daily number of new infections of Covid-19 is important because it is the basis for political decisions resulting in lockdowns and urgent health care measures. We use Germany as an example to illustrate shortcomings of…
Researchers have used social media data to estimate various macroeconomic indicators about public behaviors, mostly as a way to reduce surveying costs. One of the most widely cited economic indicator is consumer confidence index (CCI).…
In recent years, the availability of larger amounts of energy data and advanced machine learning algorithms has created a surge in building energy prediction research. However, one of the variables in energy prediction models, occupant…
This study explores the potential of internet search volume data, specifically Google Trends, as an indicator for cross-sectional stock returns. Unlike previous studies, our research specifically investigates the search volume of the topic…
This paper considers online reputation and polling systems where individuals make recommendations based on their private observations and recommendations of friends. Such interaction of individuals and their social influence is modelled as…
Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show…
Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and…
Users issue queries to Search Engines, and try to find the desired information in the results produced. They repeat this process if their information need is not met at the first place. It is crucial to identify the important words in a…
Study of the forecasting models using large scale microblog discussions and the search behavior data can provide a good insight for better understanding the market movements. In this work we collected a dataset of 2 million tweets and…
Methods and applications are inextricably linked in science, and in particular in the domain of text-as-data. In this paper, we examine one such text-as-data application, an established economic index that measures economic policy…