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Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Maresa Schröder , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Konstantin Heß , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Data from both a randomized trial and an observational study are sometimes simultaneously available for evaluating the effect of an intervention. The randomized data typically allows for reliable estimation of average treatment effects but…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-01 David Cheng , Tianxi Cai

Randomized experiments can provide unbiased estimates of sample average treatment effects. However, estimates of population treatment effects can be biased when the experimental sample and the target population differ. In this case, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-10 Wenqi Shi , Xi Lin

We establish the inferential properties of the mean-difference estimator for the average treatment effect in randomized experiments where each unit in a population is randomized to one of two treatments and then units within treatment…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-19 Zach Branson , Tirthankar Dasgupta

Causal or unconfounded descriptive comparisons between multiple groups are common in observational studies. Motivated from a racial disparity study in health services research, we propose a unified propensity score weighting framework, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-10 Fan Li , Fan Li

This article considers causal inference for treatment contrasts from a randomized experiment using potential outcomes in a finite population setting. Adopting a Neymanian repeated sampling approach that integrates such causal inference with…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-17 Rahul Mukerjee , Tirthankar Dasgupta , Donald B. Rubin

We study estimation of and inference for the average causal effect of treating every member of a population, as opposed to none, using an experiment that treats only some. Considering settings where spillovers can occur between any pair of…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-29 Stefan Faridani , Paul Niehaus

Comparing outcomes across treatments is essential in medicine and public policy. To do so, researchers typically estimate a set of parameters, possibly counterfactual, with each targeting a different treatment. Treatment-specific means are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Alec McClean , Yiting Li , Sunjae Bae , Mara A. McAdams-DeMarco , Iván Díaz , Wenbo Wu

We propose robust methods for inference on the effect of a treatment variable on a scalar outcome in the presence of very many controls. Our setting is a partially linear model with possibly non-Gaussian and heteroscedastic disturbances.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Christian Hansen

To maximize clinical benefit, clinicians routinely tailor treatment to the individual characteristics of each patient, where individualized treatment rules are needed and are of significant research interest to statisticians. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-23 Trinetri Ghosh , Yanyuan Ma , Rui Song , Pingshou Zhong

Motivated by a potential-outcomes perspective, the idea of principal stratification has been widely recognized for its relevance in settings susceptible to posttreatment selection bias such as randomized clinical trials where treatment…

Applications · Statistics 2011-11-08 Corwin M. Zigler , Thomas R. Belin

We consider methods for causal inference in randomized trials nested within cohorts of trial-eligible individuals, including those who are not randomized. We show how baseline covariate data from the entire cohort, and treatment and outcome…

The treatment allocation mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized by maximizing the nonparametric efficiency bound for a specific measure of treatment effect. Optimal treatment allocations which may or may not depend on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu

In many scenarios, the observational data needed for causal inferences are spread over two data files. In particular, we consider scenarios where one file includes covariates and the treatment measured on one set of individuals, and a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Sharmistha Guha , Jerome P. Reiter , Andrea Mercatanti

Comparisons of different treatments or production processes are the goals of a significant fraction of applied research. Unsurprisingly, two-sample problems play a main role in Statistics through natural questions such as `Is the the new…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-05 P. C. Álvarez-Esteban , E. del Barrio , J. A. Cuesta-Albertos , C. Matrán

In settings with few treated units, Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimators are not consistent, and are not generally asymptotically normal. This poses relevant challenges for inference. While there are inference methods that are valid…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-08 Luis Alvarez , Bruno Ferman

In clinical trials, inferences on clinical outcomes are often made conditional on specific selective processes. For instance, only when a treatment demonstrates a significant effect on the primary outcome, further analysis is conducted to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Tianyu Pan , Vivek Charu , Ying Lu , Lu Tian

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Matching is a widely used causal inference design that aims to approximate a randomized experiment using observational data by forming matched sets of treated and control units based on similarities in their covariates. Ideally, treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Jianan Zhu , Jeffrey Zhang , Zijian Guo , Siyu Heng

We propose a new method to estimate causal effects from nonexperimental data. Each pair of sample units is first associated with a stochastic 'treatment' - differences in factors between units - and an effect - a resultant outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-08 Andre F. Ribeiro , Frank Neffke , Ricardo Hausmann