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In many statistical applications that concern mathematical psychologists, the concept of Fisher information plays an important role. In this tutorial we clarify the concept of Fisher information as it manifests itself across three different…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-18 Alexander Ly , Maarten Marsman , Josine Verhagen , Raoul Grasman , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Time series data with missing values is common across many domains. Healthcare presents special challenges due to prolonged periods of sensor disconnection. In such cases, having a confidence measure for imputed values is critical. Most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Addison Weatherhead , Anna Goldenberg

Bayesian likelihood-free methods implement Bayesian inference using simulation of data from the model to substitute for intractable likelihood evaluations. Most likelihood-free inference methods replace the full data set with a summary…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-16 Yinan Mao , Xueou Wang , David J. Nott , Michael Evans

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Kolyan Ray , Aad van der Vaart

An established and growing literature on generalized fiducial inference and related fiducial ideas points to the adoption of fiducial inference as a mainstream perspective among modern statisticians. Like Bayesian posteriors, generalized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-03 J. E. Borgert , Jan Hannig

Multi-level normal hierarchical models, also interpreted as mixed effects models, play an important role in developing statistical theory in multi-parameter estimation for a wide range of applications. In this article, we propose a novel…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Aditi Sen , Masayo Y. Hirose , Partha Lahiri

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Yunwen Yang , Xuming He

In the past two decades, there has been a fast-growing literature on fiducial inference since it was first proposed by R. A. Fisher in the 1930s. However, most of the fiducial inference based methods and related approaches have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Yifan Cui , Jan Hannig

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are fundamental for modeling sequential data, yet learning their parameters from observations remains challenging. Classical methods like the Baum-Welch algorithm are computationally intensive and prone to local…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Reginald Zhiyan Chen , Heng-Sheng Chang , Prashant G. Mehta

Understanding how much each variable contributes to an outcome is a central question across disciplines. A causal view of explainability is favorable for its ability in uncovering underlying mechanisms and generalizing to new contexts.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-09 Weihan Zhang , Zijun Gao

The Fisher information matrix (FIM) plays an important role in the analysis of parameter inference and system design problems. In a number of cases, however, the statistical data distribution and its associated information matrix are either…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-24 Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica

Belief functions are a powerful and popular framework for the mathematical characterisation of uncertainty, in particular in situations in which lack of data renders learning a probability distribution for the problem impractical. The first…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Fabio Cuzzolin

We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-22 Roger Sewell

To analyze unstructured data (text, images, audio, video), economists typically first extract low-dimensional structured features with a neural network. Neural networks do not make generically unbiased predictions, and biases will propagate…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-20 Jacob Carlson , Melissa Dell

This paper is concerned with the reliable inference of optimal tree-approximations to the dependency structure of an unknown distribution generating data. The traditional approach to the problem measures the dependency strength between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-07-16 Marco Zaffalon , Marcus Hutter

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-11 Yonghoon Lee , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Edgar Dobriban

Selective inference aims at providing valid inference after a data-driven selection of models or hypotheses. It is essential to avoid overconfident results and replicability issues. While significant advances have been made in this area for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Matteo D'Alessandro , Magne Thoresen

There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Marco Battiston , Lorenzo Cappello

We present a general framework for Bayesian inference of causal effects that delivers provably robust inferences founded on design-based randomization of treatments. The framework involves fixing the observed potential outcomes and forming…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Easton Huch , Fred Feinberg , Walter Dempsey

Bayesian inference is a principled framework for dealing with uncertainty. The practitioner can perform an initial assumption for the physical phenomenon they want to model (prior belief), collect some data and then adjust the initial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-10 Vasileios Gkolemis , Michael Gutmann