Related papers: Robust valuation and risk measurement under model …
We investigate financial markets under model risk caused by uncertain volatilities. For this purpose we consider a financial market that features volatility uncertainty. To have a mathematical consistent framework we use the notion of…
This work considers a stochastic model in which the uncertainty is driven by a multidimensional Brownian motion. The market price of risk process makes the transition between real world probability measure and risk neutral probability…
In financial mathematics, it is a typical approach to approximate financial markets operating in discrete time by continuous-time models such as the Black Scholes model. Fitting this model gives rise to difficulties due to the discrete…
G-expectation, as a sublinear expectation, provides a powerful framework for modeling uncertainty in financial markets. Motivated by the need for robust valuation under model uncertainty, this work develops a unified risk-neutral valuation…
In this paper, we study the pricing of contracts in fixed income markets under volatility uncertainty in the sense of Knightian uncertainty or model uncertainty. The starting point is an arbitrage-free bond market under volatility…
We study robust notions of good-deal hedging and valuation under combined uncertainty about the drifts and volatilities of asset prices. Good-deal bounds are determined by a subset of risk-neutral pricing measures such that not only…
In this paper, we address one of the main puzzles in finance observed in the stock market by proponents of behavioral finance: the stock predictability puzzle. We offer a statistical model within the context of rational finance which can be…
We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model is given by a set of possible mutually singular probability measures. With a single probability model, essential equivalence between the absence of…
This study presents a long-term alternative formula for stock price variation described by a geometric Brownian motion on the basis of median instead of mean or expected values. The proposed method is motivated by the observation made in…
One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading of the underlying asset does not affect the price of that asset. This assumption can be fulfilled only in perfectly liquid markets.…
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using…
We consider arbitrage free valuation of European options in Black-Scholes and Merton markets, where the general structure of the market is known, however the specific parameters are not known. In order to reflect this subjective uncertainty…
In a seminal paper in 1973, Black and Scholes argued how expected distributions of stock prices can be used to price options. Their model assumed a directed random motion for the returns and consequently a lognormal distribution of asset…
We study a notion of good-deal hedging, that corresponds to good-deal valuation for generalized good-deal constraints. Under model uncertainty about the market prices of risk of hedging assets, a robust approach leads to a reduction or even…
With model uncertainty characterized by a convex, possibly non-dominated set of probability measures, the agent minimizes the cost of hedging a path dependent contingent claim with given expected success ratio, in a discrete-time,…
We study the Hull-White model for the term structure of interest rates in the presence of volatility uncertainty. The uncertainty about the volatility is represented by a set of beliefs, which naturally leads to a sublinear expectation and…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of Asian option prices in the worst case scenario under an uncertain volatility model. We give a procedure to approximate the Asian option prices with a small volatility interval. By imposing…
Option pricing is an integral part of modern financial risk management. The well-known Black and Scholes (1973) formula is commonly used for this purpose. This paper is an attempt to extend their work to a situation in which the…
The standard Black-Scholes theory of option pricing is extended to cope with underlying return fluctuations described by general probability distributions. A Langevin process and its related Fokker-Planck equation are devised to model the…
The price of a stock will rarely follow the assumed model and a curious investor or a Regulatory Authority may wish to obtain a probability model the prices support. A risk neutral probability ${\cal P}^*$ for the stock's price at time $T$…