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While clustering is ubiquitously used across science and industry, uncertainty in cluster assignments is rarely quantified with rigorous guarantees. We propose a novel conformal inference framework for clustering that returns confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 YoonHaeng Hur , Anirban Nath , Genevera Allen

Likelihood-based phylogenetic inference is generally considered to be the most reliable classification method for unknown sequences. However, traditional likelihood-based phylogenetic methods cannot be applied to large volumes of short…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2010-04-01 Frederick A Matsen , Robin B Kodner , E Virginia Armbrust

Short tandem repeats (STRs) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are two kinds of commonly used markers in Y chromosome studies of forensic and population genetics. There has been increasing interest in the cost saving strategy by…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-10-22 Chuan-Chao Wang , Ling-Xiang Wang , Rukesh Shrestha , Shaoqing Wen , Manfei Zhang , Xinzhu Tong , Li Jin , Hui Li

We present a maximum likelihood method for fitting two-dimensional model distributions to stellar data in colour-magnitude space. This allows one to include (for example) binary stars in an isochronal population. The method also allows one…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-11 Tim Naylor , Rob Jeffries

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

Fisher's likelihood is widely used for statistical inference for fixed unknowns. This paper aims to extend two important likelihood-based methods, namely the maximum likelihood procedure for point estimation and the confidence procedure for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-03 Hangbin Lee , Youngjo Lee

Metagenomic binning aims to cluster DNA fragments from mixed microbial samples into their respective genomes, a critical step for downstream analyses of microbial communities. Existing methods rely on deterministic representations, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Abdulkadir Celikkanat , Andres R. Masegosa , Mads Albertsen , Thomas D. Nielsen

Standard conformal prediction offers a marginal guarantee on coverage, but for prediction sets to be truly useful, they should ideally ensure coverage conditional on each test point. Unfortunately, it is impossible to achieve exact,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Jivat Neet Kaur , Michael I. Jordan , Ahmed Alaa

Latent class models are widely used for identifying unobserved subgroups from multivariate categorical data in social sciences, with binary data as a particularly popular example. However, accurately recovering individual latent class…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Zhongyuan Lyu , Yuqi Gu

Trained using only image class label, deep weakly supervised methods allow image classification and ROI segmentation for interpretability. Despite their success on natural images, they face several challenges over histology data where ROI…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-13 Soufiane Belharbi , Jérôme Rony , Jose Dolz , Ismail Ben Ayed , Luke McCaffrey , Eric Granger

It is well known that the empirical likelihood ratio confidence region suffers finite sample under-coverage issue, and this severely hampers its application in statistical inferences.} The root cause of this under-coverage is an upper limit…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-16 Guangxing Wang , Wolfgang Polonik

Hypothesis testing and other statistical inference procedures are most efficient when a reliable low-dimensional parametric family can be specified. We propose a method that learns such a family when one exists but its form is not known a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-29 William Fithian , Daniel Ting

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

We analyze the clustering problem through a flexible probabilistic model that aims to identify an optimal partition on the sample X 1 , ..., X n. We perform exact clustering with high probability using a convex semidefinite estimator that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-19 Martin Royer

Quantifying uncertainty in clinical predictions is critical for high-stakes diagnosis tasks. Conformal prediction offers a principled approach by providing prediction sets with theoretical coverage guarantees. However, in practice, patient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Arjun Chatterjee , Sayeed Sajjad Razin , John Wu , Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Jathurshan Pradeepkumar , Jimeng Sun

Sample assignment plays a prominent part in modern object detection approaches. However, most existing methods rely on manual design to assign positive / negative samples, which do not explicitly establish the relationships between sample…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Ji Liu , Dong Li , Zekun Li , Han Liu , Wenjing Ke , Lu Tian , Yi Shan

Identifying the underlying models in a set of data points contaminated by noise and outliers, leads to a highly complex multi-model fitting problem. This problem can be posed as a clustering problem by the projection of higher order…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-08-01 Ruwan Tennakoon , Alireza Sadri , Reza Hoseinnezhad , Alireza Bab-Hadiashar

Advances in high-throughput microscopy have enabled the rapid acquisition of large numbers of high-content microscopy images. Whether by deep learning or classical algorithms, image analysis pipelines then produce single-cell features. To…

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

An efficient method for obtaining low-density hyperplane separators in the unsupervised context is proposed. Low density separators can be used to obtain a partition of a set of data based on their allocations to the different sides of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-10 David P. Hofmeyr