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Uncertainties from model parameters and model discrepancy from small-scale models impact the accuracy and reliability of predictions of large-scale systems. Inadequate representation of these uncertainties may result in inaccurate and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-18 K. Sham Bhat , David S. Mebane , Curtis B. Storlie , Priyadarshi Mahapatra

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Xiang Gao , Jiaxin Zhang , Lalla Mouatadid , Kamalika Das

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning is a challenging open problem. Bayesian statistics offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about uncertainties; however, approximate posteriors for modern neural networks still…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-23 Nicolas Brosse , Carlos Riquelme , Alice Martin , Sylvain Gelly , Éric Moulines

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

A scheme is developed for estimating state-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients in a stochastic differential equation from time-series data. The scheme does not require to specify parametric forms for the drift and diffusion…

Biological Physics · Physics 2012-09-28 Jun Ohkubo

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying machine learning models in safety-critical physical systems, yet classical Bayesian approaches incur substantial computational overhead. We establish a formal connection between…

In this study, we develop a stochastic optimal control approach with reinforcement learning structure to learn the unknown parameters appeared in the drift and diffusion terms of the stochastic differential equation. By choosing an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-22 Shuzhen Yang

Emergence of artificial intelligence techniques in biomedical applications urges the researchers to pay more attention on the uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine-assisted medical decision making. For classification tasks, prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Xiaoyang Huang , Jiancheng Yang , Linguo Li , Haoran Deng , Bingbing Ni , Yi Xu

The design of next-generation alloys through the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) approach relies on multi-scale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct.…

We propose, analyze, and test a penalty projection-based efficient and accurate algorithm for the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) of the time-dependent Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow problems in convection-dominated regimes. The algorithm…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-30 Muhammad Mohebujjaman , Julian Miranda , Md. Abdullah Al Mahbub , Mengying Xiao

Sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) are used to assess and improve engineering models. In this study, various methods of SA and UQ are described and applied in theoretical and practical examples for use in energy…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-07 Majdi I. Radaideh , Mohammad I. Radaideh

Due to significant manufacturing process variations, the performance of integrated circuits (ICs) has become increasingly uncertain. Such uncertainties must be carefully quantified with efficient stochastic circuit simulators. This paper…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2014-09-18 Zheng Zhang , Ibrahim , M. Elfadel , Luca Daniel

In the last few decades, uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have been used widely to ensure the robustness of engineering designs. This chapter aims to detail recent advances in popular uncertainty quantification methods used in…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-08 Dinesh Kumar , Farid Ahmed , Shoaib Usman , Ayodeji Alajo , Syed Alam

In inverse problems, uncertainty quantification (UQ) deals with a probabilistic description of the solution nonuniqueness and data noise sensitivity. Setting seismic imaging into a Bayesian framework allows for a principled way of studying…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-04-16 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Felix J. Herrmann

We consider a class of time-homogeneous diffusion processes on $\mathbb{R}^{n}$ with common invariant measure but varying volatility matrices. In Euclidean space, we show via stochastic control of the diffusion coefficient that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-31 Bertram Tschiderer

An algorithm is proposed, analyzed, and tested experimentally for solving stochastic optimization problems in which the decision variables are constrained to satisfy equations defined by deterministic, smooth, and nonlinear functions. It is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-09 Frank E. Curtis , Daniel P. Robinson , Baoyu Zhou

A major challenge in next-generation industrial applications is to improve numerical analysis by quantifying uncertainties in predictions. In this work we present a formulation of a fully nonlinear and dispersive potential flow water wave…

Computational Physics · Physics 2016-04-15 Daniele Bigoni , Allan P. Engsig-Karup , Claes Eskilsson

Development of an accurate, flexible, and numerically efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) method is one of fundamental challenges in machine learning. Previously, a UQ method called DISCO Nets has been proposed (Bouchacourt et al.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Takuya Kanazawa , Chetan Gupta

Solving statistical learning problems often involves nonconvex optimization. Despite the empirical success of nonconvex statistical optimization methods, their global dynamics, especially convergence to the desirable local minima, remain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-30 Chris Junchi Li , Zhaoran Wang , Han Liu

Translational diffusion coefficients are routinely estimated from molecular dynamics simulations. Linear fits to mean squared displacement (MSD) curves have become the de facto standard, from simple liquids to complex biomacromolecules.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-11-20 Jakob Tómas Bullerjahn , Sören von Bülow , Gerhard Hummer