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When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Jason J. Lambe , Feng Chen , Tom Stindl , Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan

We describe likelihood-based statistical tests for use in high energy physics for the discovery of new phenomena and for construction of confidence intervals on model parameters. We focus on the properties of the test procedures that allow…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-06-25 Glen Cowan , Kyle Cranmer , Eilam Gross , Ofer Vitells

Empirical likelihood is a very important nonparametric approach which is of wide application. However, it is hard and even infeasible to calculate the empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic with massive data. The main challenge is the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-24 Qihua Wang , Jinye Du , Ying Sheng

Let $F$ be a class of functions on a probability space $(\Omega,\mu)$ and let $X_1,...,X_k$ be independent random variables distributed according to $\mu$. We establish high probability tail estimates of the form $\sup_{f \in F} |\{i :…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Shahar Mendelson

A tail empirical process for heavy-tailed and right-censored data is introduced and its Gaussian approximation is established. In this context, a (weighted) new Hill-type estimator for positive extreme value index is proposed and its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-06 Brahim Brahimi , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir , Louiza Soltane

The authors propose a robust semi-parametric empirical likelihood method to integrate all available information from multiple samples with a common center of measurements. Two different sets of estimating equations are used to improve the…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-03 Hsiao-Hsuan Wang , Yuehua Wu , Yuejiao Fu , Xiaogang Wang

In this work, we consider systems that are subjected to intermittent instabilities due to external stochastic excitation. These intermittent instabilities, though rare, have a large impact on the probabilistic response of the system and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-06-02 Mustafa A. Mohamad , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

This paper develops likelihood-based methods for estimation, inference, model selection, and forecasting of continuous-time integer-valued trawl processes. The full likelihood of integer-valued trawl processes is, in general, highly…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-24 Mikkel Bennedsen , Asger Lunde , Neil Shephard , Almut E. D. Veraart

Empirical processes for stationary, causal sequences are considered. We establish empirical central limit theorems for classes of indicators of left half lines, absolutely continuous functions and piecewise differentiable functions. Sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Wei Biao Wu

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

Computation · Statistics 2022-09-07 David J. Warne , Thomas P. Prescott , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

This paper develops a general methodology to conduct statistical inference for observations indexed by multiple sets of entities. We propose a novel multiway empirical likelihood statistic that converges to a chi-square distribution under…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-12 Harold D Chiang , Yukitoshi Matsushita , Taisuke Otsu

We study sample quantiles of distributions indexed by estimated parameters, with a on Value-at-Risk related to linear projections of financial returns that whose underlying probability law is heavy-tailed. In this setting, the projection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-25 Choudur Lakshminarayan

Linear regression is a fundamental and popular statistical method. There are various kinds of linear regression, such as mean regression and quantile regression. In this paper, we propose a new one called distribution regression, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-27 Xin Chen , Xuejun Ma , Wang Zhou

At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-11 Holger Drees , Johan Segers , Michał Warchoł

Instrumental variable methods allow for inference about the treatment effect by controlling for unmeasured confounding in randomized experiments with noncompliance. However, many studies do not consider the observed compliance behavior in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-15 Kwonsang Lee , Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , Jing Qin , Dylan S. Small

An extension of the Hawkes model where the productivity is variable is considered. In particular, the case is considered where each point may have its own productivity and a simple analytic formula is derived for the maximum likelihood…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-20 Frederic Paik Schoenberg

For time series with high temporal correlation, the empirical process converges rather slowly to its limiting distribution. Many statistics in change-point analysis, goodness-of-fit testing and uncertainty quantification admit a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-26 Annika Betken , Marie-Christine Düker

In this article, we describe a {\tt R} package for sampling from an empirical likelihood-based posterior using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. Empirical likelihood-based methodologies have been used in Bayesian modeling of many problems…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-09-07 Dang Trung Kien , Neo Han Wei , Sanjay Chaudhuri

Consider a random vector $(X,Y)$ and let $m(x)=E(Y|X=x)$. We are interested in testing $H_0:m\in {\cal M}_{\Theta,{\cal G}}=\{\gamma(\cdot,\theta,g):\theta \in \Theta,g\in {\cal G}\}$ for some known function $\gamma$, some compact set…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-07-16 Ingrid Van Keilegom , César Sánchez Sellero , Wenceslao González Manteiga

The raking-ratio method is a statistical and computational method which adjusts the empirical measure to match the true probability of sets of a finite partition. We study the asymptotic behavior of the raking-ratio empirical process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-07 Mickael Albertus