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Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Thomas J. Loredo , Robert L. Wolpert

In this paper we provide general conditions to check on the model and the prior to derive posterior concentration rates for data-dependent priors (or empirical Bayes approaches). We aim at providing conditions that are close to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-18 Sophie Donnet , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau , Catia Scricciolo

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-10-05 Jakob Robnik , Uroš Seljak

Full Bayesian posteriors are rarely analytically tractable, which is why real-world Bayesian inference heavily relies on approximate techniques. Approximations generally differ from the true posterior and require diagnostic tools to assess…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Luca Rendsburg , Agustinus Kristiadi , Philipp Hennig , Ulrike von Luxburg

Mixture models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used in machine learning to represent complex data distributions. A key challenge, especially in high-dimensional settings, is to determine the mixture order and estimate the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Srećko Đurašinović , Jean-Bernard Lasserre , Victor Magron

Conservative inference is a major concern in simulation-based inference. It has been shown that commonly used algorithms can produce overconfident posterior approximations. Balancing has empirically proven to be an effective way to mitigate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-24 Arnaud Delaunoy , Benjamin Kurt Miller , Patrick Forré , Christoph Weniger , Gilles Louppe

Consider a situation of analyzing high-dimensional count data containing an excess of near-zero counts with a small number of moderate or large counts. Assuming that the observations are modeled by a Poisson distribution, we are interested…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Sayantan Paul , Arijit Chakrabarti

We construct uncertainty intervals for weak Poisson signals in the presence of background. We consider the case where a primary experiment yields a realization of the signal plus background, and a second experiment yields a realization of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-10-19 K. J. Coakley , J. D. Splett , D. S. Simons

We introduce the BREASE framework for the Bayesian analysis of randomized controlled trials with a binary treatment and a binary outcome. Approaching the problem from a causal inference perspective, we propose parameterizing the likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Nicholas J. Irons , Carlos Cinelli

Although continuous density estimation has received abundant attention in the Bayesian nonparametrics literature, there is limited theory on multivariate mixed scale density estimation. In this note, we consider a general framework to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-26 Antonio Canale , David B. Dunson

Examples with bound information on the regression function and density abound in many real applications. We propose a novel approach for estimating such functions by incorporating the prior knowledge on the bounds. Specially, a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-30 Jize Zhang , Lizhen Lin

Given a sample from a discretely observed compound Poisson process, we consider non-parametric estimation of the density $f_0$ of its jump sizes, as well as of its intensity $\lambda_0.$ We take a Bayesian approach to the problem and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-27 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

The study of almost surely discrete random probability measures is an active line of research in Bayesian nonparametrics. The idea of assuming interaction across the atoms of the random probability measure has recently spurred significant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-25 Mario Beraha , Raffaele Argiento , Federico Camerlenghi , Alessandra Guglielmi

Constrained learning is prevalent in many statistical tasks. Recent work proposes distance-to-set penalties to derive estimators under general constraints that can be specified as sets, but focuses on obtaining point estimates that do not…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-25 Rick Presman , Jason Xu

In this paper we show that there is a link between approximate Bayesian methods and prior robustness. We show that what is typically recognized as an approximation to the likelihood, either due to the simulated data as in the Approximate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-03 Chaitanya Joshi , Fabrizio Ruggeri

Expected coverage and expected length of 90% upper and lower limit and 68.27% central intervals are plotted as functions of the true signal for various values of expected background. Results for several objective priors are shown, and…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 Ilya Narsky

Modern predictive systems encode beliefs that can act as useful prior information for statistical inference in data-limited settings. Using them for prior construction introduces a tradeoff: an informative prior built from a predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Jongwoo Choi , Sean O'Hagan

For stochastic models with intractable likelihood functions, approximate Bayesian computation offers a way of approximating the true posterior through repeated comparisons of observations with simulated model outputs in terms of a small set…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Carlo Albert , Simone Ulzega , Firat Ozdemir , Fernando Perez-Cruz , Antonietta Mira

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Ryan Martin

This paper addresses the issue of inversion in cases where (1) the observation system is modeled by a linear transformation and additive noise, (2) the problem is ill-posed and regularization is introduced in a Bayesian framework by an a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-12 Jean-François Giovannelli
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