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The purpose of this paper is to study the time average behavior of Markov chains with transition probabilities being kernels of completely continuous operators, and therefore to provide a sufficient condition for a class of Markov chains…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…
A standard way to move particles in a SMC sampler is to apply several steps of a MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) kernel. Unfortunately, it is not clear how many steps need to be performed for optimal performance. In addition, the output of…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…
Most approximation algorithms for #P-complete problems (e.g., evaluating the permanent of a matrix or the volume of a polytope) work by reduction to the problem of approximate sampling from a distribution $\pi$ over a large set $\S$. This…
The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…
We present a new perfect simulation algorithm for stationary chains having unbounded variable length memory. This is the class of infnite memory chains for which the family of transition probabilities is represented by a probabilistic…
We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…
We show how to extend a recently proposed multi-level Monte Carlo approach to the continuous time Markov chain setting, thereby greatly lowering the computational complexity needed to compute expected values of functions of the state of the…
We prove explicit, i.e. non-asymptotic, error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The problem is to compute the expectation of a function f with respect to a measure {\pi}. Different convergence properties of Markov chains imply…
Reaction networks are often used to model interacting species in fields such as biochemistry and ecology. When the counts of the species are sufficiently large, the dynamics of their concentrations are typically modeled via a system of…
Piecewise Deterministic Monte Carlo algorithms enable simulation from a posterior distribution, whilst only needing to access a sub-sample of data at each iteration. We show how they can be implemented in settings where the parameters live…
We report an exact likelihood computation for Linear Gaussian Markov processes that is more scalable than existing algorithms for complex models and sparsely sampled signals. Better scaling is achieved through elimination of repeated…
Bayesian inference for doubly-intractable pairwise exponential graphical models typically involves variations of the exchange algorithm or approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. However, existing methods for both classes of…
Bayesian data analysis is widely used across many disciplines, and representative examples in materials science include spectral analysis and sparse modeling. In such applications, the underlying models often become complex and yield…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms ubiquitously employ complex deterministic transformations to generate proposal points that are then filtered by the Metropolis-Hastings-Green (MHG) test. However, the condition of the target…
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
The particle Gibbs (PG) sampler is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which uses an interacting particle system to perform the Gibbs steps. Each Gibbs step consists of simulating a particle system conditioned on one particle path.…