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Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) has shown high potential to perform causal inference in the absence of models. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the method by varying coupling strength and noise levels in coupled logistic maps. We…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-10-19 Dan Mønster , Riccardo Fusaroli , Kristian Tylén , Andreas Roepstorff , Jacob F. Sherson

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Elise Zhang , François Mirallès , Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi , Arnaud Zinflou , Di Wu , Benoit Boulet

Identifying the causal relationships between subjects or variables remains an important problem across various scientific fields. This is particularly important but challenging in complex systems, such as those involving human behavior,…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2019-05-03 Bo Pu , Lujie Duan , Nathaniel Osgood

Identifying causal relationships in climate systems remains challenging due to nonlinear, coupled dynamics that limit the effectiveness of linear and stochastic causal discovery approaches. This study benchmarks Convergence Cross Mapping…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-23 Francis Nji , Seraj Al Mahmud Mostafa , Jianwu Wang

Understanding causal relationships within a system is crucial for uncovering its underlying mechanisms. Causal discovery methods, which facilitate the construction of such models from time-series data, hold the potential to significantly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Zsigmond Benkő , Bálint Varga , Marcell Stippinger , Zoltán Somogyvári

Convergent cross mapping (CCM) provides a powerful technique for exploring causal relationships in nonlinear coupled systems. The method relies on Takens' theorem exploiting that time delay embeddings of infinite length general observations…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2019-03-08 Robert Martin , Justin Koo , Daniel Eckhardt

Identifying directed interactions between species from time series of their population densities has many uses in ecology. This key statistical task is equivalent to causal time series inference, which connects to the Granger causality (GC)…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-10 Frederic Barraquand , Coralie Picoche , Matteo Detto , Florian Hartig

Causality defines the relationship between cause and effect. In multivariate time series field, this notion allows to characterize the links between several time series considering temporal lags. These phenomena are particularly important…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-01 Antonin Arsac , Aurore Lomet , Jean-Philippe Poli

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge. In practice, this challenge is common in many areas, such as retail sales, transportation systems, and medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Shanyun Gao , Raghavendra Addanki , Tong Yu , Ryan A. Rossi , Murat Kocaoglu

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are ideal for estimating causal effects, because the distributions of background covariates are similar in expectation across treatment groups. When estimating causal effects using observational data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Anthony D. Scotina , Roee Gutman

Understanding temporal and causal relations between events is a fundamental natural language understanding task. Because a cause must be before its effect in time, temporal and causal relations are closely related and one relation even…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-06-13 Qiang Ning , Zhili Feng , Hao Wu , Dan Roth

We introduce Causal Computational Asymmetry (CCA), a principle for causal direction identification based on optimization dynamics in which one neural network is trained to predict $Y$ from $X$ and another to predict $X$ from $Y$, and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Abdulrahman Tamim

This study investigates a powerful model, targeted to subjective assessments, based on pairwise comparisons. It provides a proof that a distance-based inconsistency reduction transforms an inconsistent pairwise comparisons (PC) matrix into…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2015-05-08 Waldemar W. Koczkodaj , Jacek Szybowski

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in recent decades. Previous studies have demonstrated that the Channel-Independent (CI) strategy improves forecasting performance by treating different channels individually, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Jialin Chen , Jan Eric Lenssen , Aosong Feng , Weihua Hu , Matthias Fey , Leandros Tassiulas , Jure Leskovec , Rex Ying

Infectious diseases are notorious for their complex dynamics, which make it difficult to fit models to test hypotheses. Methods based on state-space reconstruction have been proposed to infer causal interactions in noisy, nonlinear…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-02-08 Sarah Cobey , Edward B. Baskerville

Conditional Mutual Information (CMI) is a measure of conditional dependence between random variables X and Y, given another random variable Z. It can be used to quantify conditional dependence among variables in many data-driven inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-10 Sudipto Mukherjee , Himanshu Asnani , Sreeram Kannan

Bivariate structural causal models (SCM) are often used to infer causal direction by examining their goodness-of-fit under restricted model classes. In this paper, we describe a parametrization of bivariate SCMs in terms of a causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-11 Johnny Xi , Hugh Dance , Peter Orbanz , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy

A standard assumption for causal inference about the joint effects of time-varying treatment is that one has measured sufficient covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-04 Andrew Ying , Wang Miao , Xu Shi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Soft sensor modeling plays a crucial role in process monitoring. Causal feature selection can enhance the performance of soft sensor models in industrial applications. However, existing methods ignore two critical characteristics of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Shi-Shun Chen , Xiao-Yang Li , Enrico Zio

Of late, in order to have better acceptability among various domain, researchers have argued that machine intelligence algorithms must be able to provide explanations that humans can understand causally. This aspect, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-24 Satyam Kumar , Vadlamani Ravi
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