Related papers: Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans from …
Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are…
A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived…
Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
Estimating climate effects on future ocean storm severity is plagued by large uncertainties, yet for safe design and operation of offshore structures, best possible estimates of climate effects are required given available data. We explore…
Winds play an essential role in the climate system. In this study, we analyze the global pattern of the diurnal cycle of surface (10 m) winds from the ERA5 reanalysis data. We find that over the land and especially over sand dune regions,…
Differences between time-averaged and ensemble-averaged wind are studied for the case of changing wind direction. We consider a flow driven by a temporally turning pressure gradient in both an idealized case of a staggered cube array and a…
Because wind-generated waves can propagate over large distances, wave spectra from a fixed point can record information about air-sea interactions in distant areas. In this study, the spectral wave climate is computed for a specific…
To calculate the wind-waves in the Indian Ocean (IO), the wind field for the period from 1998 to 2009 was used, obtained from the NCEP/NOAA archive, and numerical model WAM (Cycle-4) was applied, modified by the new source function proposed…
The tropical cyclone formation process is one of the most complex natural phenomena which is governed by various atmospheric, oceanographic, and geographic factors that varies with time and space. Despite several years of research,…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
To estimate the return values for wind and wind-waves time series, we propose to use the extrapolation of a polynomial approximation built for a small part of the tail of provision function estimated for the series considered. A possibility…
To forecast wind power generation in the scale of years to decades, outputs from climate models are often used. However, one major limitation of the data projected by these models is their coarse temporal resolution - usually not finer than…
Occurrences of tropical cyclones at a location are rare, and for many locations, only short periods of observations or hindcasts are available. Hence, estimation of return values (corresponding to a period considerably longer than that for…
A bivariate ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) technique for the postprocessing of ensemble forecasts of two-dimensional wind vectors is proposed, where the postprocessed probabilistic forecast takes the form of a bivariate normal…
A nonanticipative analog method is used for the long-term forecast of air temperature extremes. The data to be used for prediction include average daily air temperature, mean visibility, mean wind speed, mean dew point, maximum and minimum…
We present initial results of a study on the variability of wind speeds across Europe over the past 140 yr, making use of the recent Twentieth Century Reanalysis data set, which includes uncertainty estimates from an ensemble method of…
Near-surface atmospheric conditions can differ sharply over tens to hundreds of meters due to land cover and topography, yet this variability is absent from current weather analyses and forecasts. It is unclear whether such meter-scale…
We compare the available wind resources for conventional wind turbines and for airborne wind energy systems. Accessing higher altitudes and dynamically adjusting the harvesting operation to the wind resource substantially increases the…
The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these…