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This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-03-22 Pascal Michaillat , Emmanuel Saez

We propose a new framework for measuring connectedness among financial variables that arises due to heterogeneous frequency responses to shocks. To estimate connectedness in short-, medium-, and long-term financial cycles, we introduce a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-20 Jozef Barunik , Tomas Krehlik

What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made,…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-02-04 Lei Tan , Bo Zheng , Jun-Jie Chen , Xiong-Fei Jiang

Minimizing volatility and adjustment costs is of central importance in many economic environments, yet it is often complicated by evolving feasibility constraints. We study a decision maker who repeatedly selects an action from a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-18 Simon Jantschgi , Heinrich H. Nax , Bary S. R. Pradelski , Marek Pycia

A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-05-20 Bulcsu Sandor , Zoltan Neda

We address the problem of banking system resilience by applying off-equilibrium statistical physics to a system of particles, representing the economic agents, modelled according to the theoretical foundation of the current banking…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-04 João P. da Cruz , Pedro G. Lind

Banks must optimize risky investments, dividend payouts, and capital structure under tight Basel III solvency and liquidity constraints, while costly equity issuance serves as a distress-recovery tool. We formulate this as a stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Erhan Bayraktar , Etienne Chevalier , Vathana Ly Vath , Yuqiong Wang

Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-08 V. Macchiati , G. Brandi , G. Cimini , G. Caldarelli , D. Paolotti , T. Di Matteo

We contribute to the understanding of how systemic risk arises in a network of credit-interlinked agents. Motivated by empirical studies we formulate a network model which, despite its simplicity, depicts the nature of interbank markets…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-06-26 Oliver Kley , Claudia Klüppelberg , Lukas Reichel

We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-02-20 Marco Zamparo , Fulvio Baldovin , Michele Caraglio , Attilio L. Stella

Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-24 Matteo Serri , Guido Caldarelli , Giulio Cimini

A common belief is that leveraged ETFs (LETFs) suffer long-term performance decay due to \emph{volatility drag}. We show that this view is incomplete: LETF performance depends fundamentally on return autocorrelation and return dynamics. In…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-30 Chung-Han Hsieh , Jow-Ran Chang , Hui Hsiang Chen

Econophysics and econometrics agree that there is a correlation between volume and volatility in a time series. Using empirical data and their distributions, we further investigate this correlation and discover new ways that volatility and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-03-21 Zeyu Zheng , Zhi Qiao , Joel N. Tenenbaum , H. Eugene Stanley , Baowen Li

We present a time-dependent Langevin description of dynamics of stock prices. Based on a simple sliding-window algorithm, the fluctuation of stock prices is discussed in the view of a time-dependent linear restoring force which is the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Zi-Gang Huang , Yong Chen , Yong Zhang , Ying-Hai Wang

We introduce a model in which a regulator employs mechanism design to embed her human capital beta signal(s) in a firm's capital structure, in order to enhance the value of her post career change indexed executive stock option contract with…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-12-31 Godfrey Charles-Cadogan , John A. Cole

We study an agent-based stock market model with heterogeneous agents and friction. Our model is based on that of Foellmer-Schweizer(1993): The process of a stock price in a discrete-time framework is determined by temporary equilibria via…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-29 Takashi Kato

Prize linked savings accounts provide a return in the form of randomly chosen accounts receiving large cash prizes, in lieu of a guaranteed and uniform interest rate. This model became legal for American national banks upon bipartisan…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-01-19 Oisin Connolly

Financial institutions have to allocate so-called "economic capital" in order to guarantee solvency to their clients and counter parties. Mathematically speaking, any methodology of allocating capital is a "risk measure", i.e. a function…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2011-08-09 Dirk Tasche

There are some statistical anomalies in the Chinese stock market, i.e., positive return skewness, anti-leverage effect (positive returns induce higher volatility than negative returns); and reverse volatility asymmetry (contemporaneous…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-11-06 Liang Wu , Jingyi Luo , Yingkai Tang , Gregory Bardes

I sketch a program for a microeconomic theory of the main component of the business cycle as a recurring disequilibrium, driven by incompleteness of the financial market and by information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. This…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-02 Alejandro Jenkins