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We present a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for detecting hidden variables in a continuous time Bayesian network (CTBN), which uses reversible jumps in the sense defined by (Green 1995). In common with several…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-18 Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , John Noble , Krzysztof Opalski

We consider the approximation of expectations with respect to the distribution of a latent Markov process given noisy measurements. This is known as the smoothing problem and is often approached with particle and Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2019-02-06 Lawrence Middleton , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet , Pierre E. Jacob

There has been substantial interest in developing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. However existing algorithms can only be used if the target distribution of interest is differentiable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-12 Augustin Chevallier , Sam Power , Andi Q. Wang , Paul Fearnhead

In this paper we consider the simulation-based Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) models. Extending the highly efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo mixture sampler for the SV model proposed in Kim et al. (1998) and Omori…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-21 Daichi Hiraki , Siddhartha Chib , Yasuhiro Omori

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are common for modeling complex data. While these models are well-suited for density estimation, recent results proved posterior inconsistency of the number of clusters when the true number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-31 Louise Alamichel , Daria Bystrova , Julyan Arbel , Guillaume Kon Kam King

In population studies, it is standard to sample data via designs in which the population is divided into strata, with the different strata assigned different probabilities of inclusion. Although there have been some proposals for including…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-29 T. Kunihama , A. H. Herring , C. T. Halpern , D. B. Dunson

We propose a very fast approximate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework that is applicable to a large class of sparse Bayesian inference problems, where the computational cost per iteration in several models is of order…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-17 Yves Atchadé , Liwei Wang

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are simple and extremely powerful techniques to sample from almost arbitrary distributions. The flaw in practice is that it can take a large and/or unknown amount of time to converge to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-13 Xianghang Liu , Justin Domke

Bayesian learning in undirected graphical models|computing posterior distributions over parameters and predictive quantities is exceptionally difficult. We conjecture that for general undirected models, there are no tractable MCMC (Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-19 Iain Murray , Zoubin Ghahramani

Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective…

Computation · Statistics 2014-04-17 Peter Neal

We consider the problem of estimating Shannon's entropy $H$ from discrete data, in cases where the number of possible symbols is unknown or even countably infinite. The Pitman-Yor process, a generalization of Dirichlet process, provides a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-04-11 Evan Archer , Il Memming Park , Jonathan Pillow

Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-20 Vinayak Rao , Yee Whye Teh

Nested nonparametric processes are vectors of random probability measures widely used in the Bayesian literature to model the dependence across distinct, though related, groups of observations. These processes allow a two-level clustering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Federico Camerlenghi , Riccardo Corradin , Andrea Ongaro

There is a rich literature on Bayesian methods for density estimation, which characterize the unknown density as a mixture of kernels. Such methods have advantages in terms of providing uncertainty quantification in estimation, while being…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-10 Shounak Chattopadhyay , Antik Chakraborty , David B. Dunson

Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Ryan Martin , Surya T. Tokdar

The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is widely used for analyzing correlated data, particularly in large-scale biomedical and social science applications. Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs is challenging because the marginal…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Samuel I. Berchuck , Youngsoo Baek , Felipe A. Medeiros , Andrea Agazzi

Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) algorithms have proven useful in scaling Bayesian inference to large datasets under an assumption of i.i.d data. We instead develop an SG-MCMC algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-16 Yi-An Ma , Nicholas J. Foti , Emily B. Fox

Gaussian Process (GPs) models are a rich distribution over functions with inductive biases controlled by a kernel function. Learning occurs through the optimisation of kernel hyperparameters using the marginal likelihood as the objective.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-22 Fergus Simpson , Vidhi Lalchand , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful method for drawing samples from non-standard probability distributions and is utilized across many fields and disciplines. Methods such as Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Hamiltonian…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-28 Lee Devlin , Paul Horridge , Peter L. Green , Simon Maskell

Gibbs partition models are the largest class of infinite exchangeable partitions of the positive integers generalizing the product form of the probability function of the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet family. Recently those models have…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-23 Annalisa Cerquetti