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We present a model of roundoff error analysis that combines simplicity with predictive power. Though not considering all sources of roundoff within an algorithm, the model is related to a recursive roundoff error analysis and therefore…
Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…
In this paper, we present the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator for autoregressive (AR for short) models subject to Markovian changes in regime under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily…
Order-Agnostic autoregressive models have demonstrated strong performance in deep generative modeling, yet their use in settings with incomplete data remains largely unexplored. In this work, we reinterpret them through the lens of missing…
In this paper, we propose a new test for the detection of a change in a non-linear (auto-)regressive time series as well as a corresponding estimator for the unknown time point of the change. To this end, we consider an at-most-one-change…
An algorithm is proposed that enables the imposition of shape constraints on regression curves, without requiring the constraints to be written as closed-form expressions, nor assuming the functional form of the loss function. This…
We consider the estimation problem in a regression setting where the outcome variable is subject to nonignorable missingness and identifiability is ensured by the shadow variable approach. We propose a versatile estimation procedure where…
Mixture models have received considerable attention recently and Newton [Sankhy\={a} Ser. A 64 (2002) 306--322] proposed a fast recursive algorithm for estimating a mixing distribution. We prove almost sure consistency of this recursive…
This paper establishes that so-called instrumental variables enable the identification and the estimation of a fully nonparametric regression model with Berkson-type measurement error in the regressors. An estimator is proposed and proven…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…
In this paper we propose a recursive online algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-varying ARCH process. The estimation is done by updating the estimator at time point $t-1$ with observations about the time point $t$ to yield an…
A recursive state estimation procedure is derived for a linear time varying system with both parametric uncertainties and stochastic measurement droppings. This estimator has a similar form as that of the Kalman filter with intermittent…
The estimation of normalizing constants is a fundamental step in probabilistic model comparison. Sequential Monte Carlo methods may be used for this task and have the advantage of being inherently parallelizable. However, the standard…
We propose sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the static parameters in hidden Markov models with an intractable likelihood using ideas from approximate Bayesian computation. The static parameter…
Covariate shift in regression problems and the associated distribution mismatch between training and test data is a commonly encountered phenomenon in machine learning. In this paper, we extend recent results on nonparametric convergence…
The Markov assumption (MA) is fundamental to the empirical validity of reinforcement learning. In this paper, we propose a novel Forward-Backward Learning procedure to test MA in sequential decision making. The proposed test does not assume…
We consider nonparametric prediction with multiple covariates, in particular categorical or functional predictors, or a mixture of both. The method proposed bases on an extension of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator where a kernel function is…
The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…
In this article, we consider the estimation of the structural change point in the nonparametric model with dependent observations. We introduce a maximum-CUSUM-estimation procedure, where the CUSUM statistic is constructed based on the…
We formulate gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling as optimization on the space of probability measures, with Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as the objective functional. We show that an underdamped form of the Langevin…